July 25, 2014
Light Heavyweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Anthony Johnson | Rogerio Nogueira |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 13 | 7 |
| Experience Gap | 6 | -6 |
| Experience ELO | 1 202 | 1 194 |
| ELO Change | +38 | -38 |
Anthony Johnson's 6-fight experience advantage (13 vs 7 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Anthony Johnson for the expected result. Had Rogerio Nogueira pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Anthony Johnson | Rogerio Nogueira |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 112 | 1 052 |
| ELO Change | +20 | -20 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Anthony Johnson | Rogerio Nogueira |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | KO/TKO | KO/TKO |
| Last Round | 1 | 1 |
| Time of Finish | 0:44 | 0:44 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 472 | 1 282 |
| ELO Change | +91 | -34 |
Anthony Johnson secured a devastating KO/TKO in 0:44 of round 1. This explosive first-minute finish earned substantial bonus rewards for the exceptional performance.
| Metric | Anthony Johnson | Rogerio Nogueira |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 8 | 0 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 17 | 2 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 8 | 0 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 1 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 530 | 1 206 |
| ELO Change | +141 | -141 |
Anthony Johnson controlled the striking exchanges with 8 vs 0 significant strikes, 47.1% vs 0.0% accuracy, including 1 devastating knockdown. Anthony Johnson capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Anthony Johnson | Rogerio Nogueira |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 0 | 0 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:01 | 0:00 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 1 245 | 1 105 |
| ELO Change | +15 | -15 |
Minimal ground action with brief exchanges. The low volume resulted in modest ground adjustments.
| Metric | Anthony Johnson | Rogerio Nogueira |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 91 | 539 |
| Activity ELO | 1 254 | 1 088 |
| ELO Change | +35 | -14 |
Anthony Johnson demonstrated solid activity levels with 91 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Anthony Johnson capitalized on this activity level, while Rogerio Nogueira's 539-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Anthony Johnson | Rogerio Nogueira |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 2 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 141 | 1 070 |
| ELO Change | +23 | -19 |
Anthony Johnson extended his 2-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Rogerio Nogueira is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Anthony Johnson | Rogerio Nogueira |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Light Heavyweight | Light Heavyweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 109 | 1 045 |
| ELO Change | +20 | -20 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.

