Anthony Johnson vs Rogerio Nogueira

July 25, 2014

Light Heavyweight Bout

Click any category to learn how it's calculated.

1258
(+48)
Anthony Johnson
Winner: Anthony Johnson
KO/TKO
Round 1 • 0:44

No Predictions Available

Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025

C-ELO Evolution

Anthony Johnson+48
Rogerio Nogueira-38
1130
(-38)
Rogerio Nogueira

C-ELO™ Evolution Comparison

Fight Stats & ELO Performance

Experience ELO
ELO Changes
Anthony Johnson: +38Rogerio Nogueira: -38

Performance Statistics

MetricAnthony JohnsonRogerio Nogueira
Total UFC Fights137
Experience Gap6-6
Experience ELO1 2021 194
ELO Change+38-38
💡

What Happened

Anthony Johnson's 6-fight experience advantage (13 vs 7 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Anthony Johnson for the expected result. Had Rogerio Nogueira pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.

Title Fight ELO
ELO Changes
Anthony Johnson: +20Rogerio Nogueira: -20

Performance Statistics

MetricAnthony JohnsonRogerio Nogueira
Title Fight ?NoNo
Title Fight ELO1 1121 052
ELO Change+20-20
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What Happened

This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.

Win Type ELO
ELO Changes
Anthony Johnson: +91Rogerio Nogueira: -34

Performance Statistics

MetricAnthony JohnsonRogerio Nogueira
Fight OutcomeKO/TKOKO/TKO
Last Round11
Time of Finish0:440:44
Win Type ELO1 4721 282
ELO Change+91-34
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What Happened

Anthony Johnson secured a devastating KO/TKO in 0:44 of round 1. This explosive first-minute finish earned substantial bonus rewards for the exceptional performance.

Striking ELO
ELO Changes
Anthony Johnson: +141Rogerio Nogueira: -141

Performance Statistics

MetricAnthony JohnsonRogerio Nogueira
Significant Strikes Landed80
Significant Strikes Attempted172
Total Strikes Landed80
Knockdowns Scored10
Striking ELO1 5301 206
ELO Change+141-141
💡

What Happened

Anthony Johnson controlled the striking exchanges with 8 vs 0 significant strikes, 47.1% vs 0.0% accuracy, including 1 devastating knockdown. Anthony Johnson capitalized on this striking dominance.

Ground ELO
ELO Changes
Anthony Johnson: +15Rogerio Nogueira: -15

Performance Statistics

MetricAnthony JohnsonRogerio Nogueira
Takedowns Landed00
Takedowns Attempted00
Ground Control Time0:010:00
Ground Strikes Landed00
Ground ELO1 2451 105
ELO Change+15-15
💡

What Happened

Minimal ground action with brief exchanges. The low volume resulted in modest ground adjustments.

Activity ELO
ELO Changes
Anthony Johnson: +35Rogerio Nogueira: -14

Performance Statistics

MetricAnthony JohnsonRogerio Nogueira
Days Since Last Fight91539
Activity ELO1 2541 088
ELO Change+35-14
💡

What Happened

Anthony Johnson demonstrated solid activity levels with 91 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Anthony Johnson capitalized on this activity level, while Rogerio Nogueira's 539-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.

Win Streak ELO
ELO Changes
Anthony Johnson: +23Rogerio Nogueira: -19

Performance Statistics

MetricAnthony JohnsonRogerio Nogueira
Win Streak20
Win Streak ELO1 1411 070
ELO Change+23-19
💡

What Happened

Anthony Johnson extended his 2-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Rogerio Nogueira is back at 0 with this loss.

Basic/Category ELO
ELO Changes
Anthony Johnson: +20Rogerio Nogueira: -20

Performance Statistics

MetricAnthony JohnsonRogerio Nogueira
Weight ClassLight HeavyweightLight Heavyweight
Double Championship FightNoNo
Basic/Category ELO1 1091 045
ELO Change+20-20
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What Happened

This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.