April 1, 2008
Welterweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Anthony Johnson | Tommy Speer |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 3 | 2 |
| Experience Gap | 1 | -1 |
| Experience ELO | 1 044 | 951 |
| ELO Change | +28 | -28 |
Both fighters entered with identical experience levels (3 fights each). On this fight, close to zero experience-based adjustments were applied.
| Metric | Anthony Johnson | Tommy Speer |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 015 | 959 |
| ELO Change | +20 | -20 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Anthony Johnson | Tommy Speer |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | KO/TKO | KO/TKO |
| Last Round | 1 | 1 |
| Time of Finish | 0:51 | 0:51 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 154 | 930 |
| ELO Change | +73 | -28 |
Anthony Johnson secured a devastating KO/TKO in 0:51 of round 1. This explosive first-minute finish earned substantial bonus rewards for the exceptional performance.
| Metric | Anthony Johnson | Tommy Speer |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 15 | 0 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 25 | 7 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 15 | 0 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 1 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 169 | 813 |
| ELO Change | +126 | -126 |
Anthony Johnson controlled the striking exchanges with 15 vs 0 significant strikes, 60.0% vs 0.0% accuracy, including 1 devastating knockdown. Anthony Johnson capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Anthony Johnson | Tommy Speer |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 0 | 2 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:01 | 0:00 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 2 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 976 | 834 |
| ELO Change | +45 | -45 |
Minimal ground action with brief exchanges. The low volume resulted in modest ground adjustments.
| Metric | Anthony Johnson | Tommy Speer |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 193 | 116 |
| Activity ELO | 1 023 | 959 |
| ELO Change | +25 | -20 |
Anthony Johnson demonstrated standard activity with 193 days since his last fight, earning a small activity bonus for reasonable scheduling. As the winner, Anthony Johnson capitalized on this activity level, while Tommy Speer's 116-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Anthony Johnson | Tommy Speer |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 1 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 019 | 959 |
| ELO Change | +22 | -20 |
Anthony Johnson started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Tommy Speer is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Anthony Johnson | Tommy Speer |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Welterweight | Welterweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 015 | 959 |
| ELO Change | +20 | -20 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.