January 13, 2012
Middleweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Anthony Johnson | Vitor Belfort |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 11 | 15 |
| Experience Gap | -4 | 4 |
| Experience ELO | 1 121 | 1 201 |
| ELO Change | -30 | +30 |
Vitor Belfort's 4-fight experience advantage (15 vs 11 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Vitor Belfort for the expected result. Had Anthony Johnson pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Anthony Johnson | Vitor Belfort |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 067 | 1 190 |
| ELO Change | -16 | +16 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Anthony Johnson | Vitor Belfort |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Submission | Submission |
| Last Round | 1 | 1 |
| Time of Finish | 4:49 | 4:49 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 339 | 1 509 |
| ELO Change | -32 | +52 |
Vitor Belfort earned an early finish with a Submission in round 1 at 4:49, gaining additional bonuses for the first-round submission.
| Metric | Anthony Johnson | Vitor Belfort |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 4 | 14 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 16 | 29 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 14 | 37 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 346 | 1 422 |
| ELO Change | -57 | +57 |
Vitor Belfort edged the striking exchanges with 37 vs 14 total strikes, 14 vs 4 significant strikes, 48.3% vs 25.0% accuracy. Vitor Belfort capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Anthony Johnson | Vitor Belfort |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 2 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 8 | 0 |
| Ground Control Time | 2:12 | 1:12 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 1 | 11 |
| Ground ELO | 1 187 | 1 266 |
| ELO Change | -62 | +62 |
Vitor Belfort controlled Anthony Johnson on the ground with 0 takedowns, 1:12 of control time, 11 ground strikes, earning substantial ground ELO bonuses. The submission finish significantly amplified the grappling rewards.
| Metric | Anthony Johnson | Vitor Belfort |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 106 | 162 |
| Activity ELO | 1 195 | 1 328 |
| ELO Change | -16 | +28 |
Vitor Belfort demonstrated solid activity levels with 162 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Vitor Belfort capitalized on this activity level, while Anthony Johnson's 106-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Anthony Johnson | Vitor Belfort |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 2 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 089 | 1 156 |
| ELO Change | -19 | +23 |
Vitor Belfort extended his 2-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Anthony Johnson is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Anthony Johnson | Vitor Belfort |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Middleweight | Middleweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 064 | 1 128 |
| ELO Change | -19 | +19 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.
Why It Matters:
Extra bonuses are awarded for title victories and undefeated streaks. These bonuses are only calculated for certain fighters with notable performances. Only UFC champions and undefeated fighters (in the UFC) can receive these bonuses.