June 3, 2011
Lightweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Anthony Pettis | Clay Guida |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 1 | 14 |
| Experience Gap | -13 | 13 |
| Experience ELO | 980 | 1 150 |
| ELO Change | -20 | +20 |
Clay Guida's 13-fight experience advantage (14 vs 1 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Clay Guida for the expected result. Had Anthony Pettis pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Anthony Pettis | Clay Guida |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 984 | 1 096 |
| ELO Change | -16 | +16 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Anthony Pettis | Clay Guida |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Unanimous | Decision - Unanimous |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 987 | 1 303 |
| ELO Change | -13 | +13 |
Clay Guida earned a clear Decision - Unanimous, receiving full decision bonuses for controlling the fight across all rounds. Of course, a finish would have yielded even greater rewards.
| Metric | Anthony Pettis | Clay Guida |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 14 | 19 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 51 | 65 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 42 | 63 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 987 | 1 240 |
| ELO Change | -13 | +13 |
Clay Guida edged the striking exchanges with 63 vs 42 total strikes, 19 vs 14 significant strikes. Clay Guida capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Anthony Pettis | Clay Guida |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 5 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 0 | 8 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:41 | 10:17 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 2 | 6 |
| Ground ELO | 989 | 1 483 |
| ELO Change | -11 | +11 |
Clay Guida dominated Anthony Pettis on the ground with 5 vs 0 takedowns, 10:17 of control time, 6 ground strikes, earning massive ground ELO bonuses.
| Metric | Anthony Pettis | Clay Guida |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | N/A | 154 |
| Activity ELO | 991 | 1 253 |
| ELO Change | -9 | +15 |
Clay Guida demonstrated solid activity levels with 154 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Clay Guida capitalized on this activity level, while Anthony Pettis's null-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Anthony Pettis | Clay Guida |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 4 |
| Win Streak ELO | 986 | 1 134 |
| ELO Change | -14 | +20 |
Clay Guida extended his 4-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Anthony Pettis is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Anthony Pettis | Clay Guida |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Lightweight | Lightweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 984 | 1 097 |
| ELO Change | -16 | +16 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.

