November 10, 2017
Lightweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Anthony Pettis | Dustin Poirier |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 13 | 19 |
| Experience Gap | -6 | 6 |
| Experience ELO | 1 203 | 1 269 |
| ELO Change | -31 | +31 |
Dustin Poirier's 6-fight experience advantage (19 vs 13 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Dustin Poirier for the expected result. Had Anthony Pettis pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Anthony Pettis | Dustin Poirier |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 124 | 1 166 |
| ELO Change | -21 | +21 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Anthony Pettis | Dustin Poirier |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | KO/TKO | KO/TKO |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 2:08 | 2:08 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 357 | 1 480 |
| ELO Change | -42 | +85 |
Dustin Poirier gained a finish with a KO/TKO in round 3, earning finishing bonuses.
| Metric | Anthony Pettis | Dustin Poirier |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 34 | 53 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 54 | 100 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 46 | 71 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 254 | 1 383 |
| ELO Change | -65 | +65 |
Dustin Poirier controlled the striking exchanges with 71 vs 46 total strikes, 53 vs 34 significant strikes, 53.0% vs 63.0% accuracy. Dustin Poirier capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Anthony Pettis | Dustin Poirier |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 1 | 5 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 1 | 6 |
| Ground Control Time | 1:36 | 6:51 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 10 | 20 |
| Ground ELO | 1 115 | 1 328 |
| ELO Change | -50 | +50 |
Dustin Poirier controlled Anthony Pettis on the ground with 5 vs 1 takedowns, 6:51 of control time, 20 ground strikes, earning substantial ground ELO bonuses.
| Metric | Anthony Pettis | Dustin Poirier |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 127 | 183 |
| Activity ELO | 1 216 | 1 338 |
| ELO Change | -16 | +20 |
Dustin Poirier demonstrated standard activity with 183 days since his last fight, earning a small activity bonus for reasonable scheduling. As the winner, Dustin Poirier capitalized on this activity level, while Anthony Pettis's 127-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Anthony Pettis | Dustin Poirier |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 1 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 117 | 1 207 |
| ELO Change | -18 | +20 |
Dustin Poirier started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Anthony Pettis is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Anthony Pettis | Dustin Poirier |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Lightweight | Lightweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 058 | 1 162 |
| ELO Change | -17 | +17 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.
Why It Matters:
Extra bonuses are awarded for title victories and undefeated streaks. These bonuses are only calculated for certain fighters with notable performances. Only UFC champions and undefeated fighters (in the UFC) can receive these bonuses.