January 16, 2016
Lightweight Bout
Click any category to learn how it's calculated.
Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Anthony Pettis | Eddie Alvarez |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 8 | 3 |
| Experience Gap | 5 | -5 |
| Experience ELO | 1 174 | 1 097 |
| ELO Change | -47 | +63 |
Eddie Alvarez overcame a 5-fight experience disadvantage (3 vs 8 fights), earning a reward for beating the more seasoned veteran Anthony Pettis.
| Metric | Anthony Pettis | Eddie Alvarez |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 148 | 1 040 |
| ELO Change | -30 | +30 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Anthony Pettis | Eddie Alvarez |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Split | Decision - Split |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 367 | 1 027 |
| ELO Change | -19 | +19 |
The controversial Decision - Split reflected a closely contested battle, with Eddie Alvarez receiving reduced bonuses due to the lack of clear domination.
| Metric | Anthony Pettis | Eddie Alvarez |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 56 | 42 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 109 | 90 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 109 | 74 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 404 | 1 053 |
| ELO Change | -39 | +39 |
Anthony Pettis controlled the striking through overwhelming volume (109 vs 74 total strikes), significant strike advantage (56 vs 42). However, since Anthony Pettis lost the overall fight, his striking superiority couldn't be converted into ELO bonuses. Eddie Alvarez's positive striking ELO reflects the overall victory rather than striking dominance.
| Metric | Anthony Pettis | Eddie Alvarez |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 6 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 0 | 15 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:00 | 7:38 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 3 |
| Ground ELO | 1 082 | 1 210 |
| ELO Change | -160 | +160 |
Eddie Alvarez dominated Anthony Pettis on the ground with 6 vs 0 takedowns, 7:38 of control time, 3 ground strikes, earning massive ground ELO bonuses.
| Metric | Anthony Pettis | Eddie Alvarez |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 309 | 219 |
| Activity ELO | 1 158 | 1 064 |
| ELO Change | -30 | +38 |
Eddie Alvarez demonstrated standard activity with 219 days since his last fight, earning a small activity bonus for reasonable scheduling. As the winner, Eddie Alvarez capitalized on this activity level, while Anthony Pettis's 309-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Anthony Pettis | Eddie Alvarez |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 2 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 109 | 1 048 |
| ELO Change | -28 | +34 |
Eddie Alvarez extended his 2-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Anthony Pettis is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Anthony Pettis | Eddie Alvarez |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Lightweight | Lightweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 060 | 1 036 |
| ELO Change | -26 | +26 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.
Why It Matters:
Extra bonuses are awarded for title victories and undefeated streaks. These bonuses are only calculated for certain fighters with notable performances. Only UFC champions and undefeated fighters (in the UFC) can receive these bonuses.