December 5, 2014
UFC Lightweight Title Bout
Title Fight
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Anthony Pettis | Gilbert Melendez |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 6 | 3 |
| Experience Gap | 3 | -3 |
| Experience ELO | 1 251 | 1 073 |
| ELO Change | +19 | -19 |
Anthony Pettis's 3-fight experience advantage (6 vs 3 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Anthony Pettis for the expected result. Had Gilbert Melendez pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Anthony Pettis | Gilbert Melendez |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | Yes | Yes |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 201 | 1 010 |
| ELO Change | +39 | -13 |
Title fight! The championship stakes amplified the pressure. Anthony Pettis captured the UFC Lightweight Title Bout with a title bonus.
| Metric | Anthony Pettis | Gilbert Melendez |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Submission | Submission |
| Last Round | 2 | 2 |
| Time of Finish | 1:53 | 1:53 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 419 | 1 058 |
| ELO Change | +17 | -11 |
Anthony Pettis earned a finish with a Submission in round 2 at 1:53, earning finishing bonuses for the submission. Gilbert Melendez was submitted.
| Metric | Anthony Pettis | Gilbert Melendez |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 30 | 27 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 58 | 78 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 43 | 59 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 475 | 1 060 |
| ELO Change | +4 | -4 |
Gilbert Melendez controlled the striking through superior volume (59 vs 43 total strikes), superior accuracy (34.6% vs 51.7%). However, since Gilbert Melendez lost the overall fight, his striking superiority couldn't be converted into ELO bonuses. Anthony Pettis's positive striking ELO reflects the overall victory rather than striking dominance.
| Metric | Anthony Pettis | Gilbert Melendez |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 1 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 0 | 8 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:03 | 4:21 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 2 |
| Ground ELO | 1 333 | 1 077 |
| ELO Change | +19 | -19 |
Anthony Pettis edged out Gilbert Melendez on the ground with 0 takedowns, earning solid ground ELO bonuses. The submission finish significantly amplified the grappling rewards.
| Metric | Anthony Pettis | Gilbert Melendez |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 463 | 414 |
| Activity ELO | 1 196 | 1 027 |
| ELO Change | +11 | -13 |
Anthony Pettis demonstrated extended layoff with 463 days since his last fight, earning reduced bonuses due to inactivity rust. As the winner, Anthony Pettis capitalized on this activity level, while Gilbert Melendez's 414-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Anthony Pettis | Gilbert Melendez |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 5 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 154 | 1 011 |
| ELO Change | +29 | -15 |
Anthony Pettis continued building serious momentum with a 5-fight win streak, earning a strong bonus as streak bonuses escalate. Gilbert Melendez's now at 0.
| Metric | Anthony Pettis | Gilbert Melendez |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Lightweight | Lightweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 104 | 999 |
| ELO Change | +17 | -17 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.
Why It Matters:
Extra bonuses are awarded for title victories and undefeated streaks. These bonuses are only calculated for certain fighters with notable performances. Only UFC champions and undefeated fighters (in the UFC) can receive these bonuses.