July 6, 2018
Lightweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Anthony Pettis | Michael Chiesa |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 14 | 11 |
| Experience Gap | 3 | -3 |
| Experience ELO | 1 232 | 1 142 |
| ELO Change | +29 | -29 |
Anthony Pettis's 3-fight experience advantage (14 vs 11 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Anthony Pettis for the expected result. Had Michael Chiesa pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Anthony Pettis | Michael Chiesa |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 143 | 1 067 |
| ELO Change | +19 | -19 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Anthony Pettis | Michael Chiesa |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Submission | Submission |
| Last Round | 2 | 2 |
| Time of Finish | 0:52 | 0:52 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 412 | 1 265 |
| ELO Change | +55 | -35 |
Anthony Pettis earned a finish with a Submission in round 2 at 0:52, earning finishing bonuses for the submission. Michael Chiesa was submitted.
| Metric | Anthony Pettis | Michael Chiesa |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 9 | 12 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 22 | 26 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 13 | 19 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 266 | 1 077 |
| ELO Change | +12 | -12 |
The striking was extremely close with minimal separation between fighters. However, since Michael Chiesa lost the overall fight, any slight striking edge couldn't be converted into ELO gains. Anthony Pettis's positive striking ELO reflects the overall victory rather than striking dominance.
| Metric | Anthony Pettis | Michael Chiesa |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 2 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 0 | 6 |
| Ground Control Time | 1:04 | 2:38 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 1 | 1 |
| Ground ELO | 1 172 | 1 186 |
| ELO Change | +57 | -57 |
Anthony Pettis edged out Michael Chiesa on the ground with 0 takedowns, 1:04 of control time, 1 ground strike, earning solid ground ELO bonuses. The submission finish significantly amplified the grappling rewards.
| Metric | Anthony Pettis | Michael Chiesa |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 238 | 377 |
| Activity ELO | 1 241 | 1 178 |
| ELO Change | +25 | -20 |
Anthony Pettis demonstrated standard activity with 238 days since his last fight, earning a small activity bonus for reasonable scheduling. As the winner, Anthony Pettis capitalized on this activity level, while Michael Chiesa's 377-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Anthony Pettis | Michael Chiesa |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 1 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 140 | 1 097 |
| ELO Change | +23 | -21 |
Anthony Pettis started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Michael Chiesa is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Anthony Pettis | Michael Chiesa |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Lightweight | Lightweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 081 | 1 063 |
| ELO Change | +23 | -23 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.
Why It Matters:
Extra bonuses are awarded for title victories and undefeated streaks. These bonuses are only calculated for certain fighters with notable performances. Only UFC champions and undefeated fighters (in the UFC) can receive these bonuses.