August 16, 2019
Welterweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Anthony Pettis | Nate Diaz |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 17 | 24 |
| Experience Gap | -7 | 7 |
| Experience ELO | 1 217 | 1 226 |
| ELO Change | -38 | +38 |
Nate Diaz's 7-fight experience advantage (24 vs 17 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Nate Diaz for the expected result. Had Anthony Pettis pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Anthony Pettis | Nate Diaz |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 125 | 1 134 |
| ELO Change | -23 | +23 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Anthony Pettis | Nate Diaz |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Unanimous | Decision - Unanimous |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 456 | 1 517 |
| ELO Change | -45 | +45 |
Nate Diaz earned a clear Decision - Unanimous, receiving full decision bonuses for controlling the fight across all rounds. Of course, a finish would have yielded even greater rewards.
| Metric | Anthony Pettis | Nate Diaz |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 69 | 114 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 133 | 201 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 86 | 205 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 1 |
| Striking ELO | 1 274 | 1 352 |
| ELO Change | -92 | +92 |
Nate Diaz dominated the striking exchanges with 205 vs 86 total strikes, 114 vs 69 significant strikes, including 1 devastating knockdown. Nate Diaz capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Anthony Pettis | Nate Diaz |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 1 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 0 | 1 |
| Ground Control Time | 1:49 | 5:58 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 3 | 20 |
| Ground ELO | 1 179 | 1 320 |
| ELO Change | -57 | +57 |
Nate Diaz controlled Anthony Pettis on the ground with 1 vs 0 takedowns, 5:58 of control time, 20 ground strikes, earning substantial ground ELO bonuses.
| Metric | Anthony Pettis | Nate Diaz |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 147 | 1 092 |
| Activity ELO | 1 255 | 1 354 |
| ELO Change | -17 | +15 |
Nate Diaz demonstrated extended layoff with 1092 days since his last fight, earning reduced bonuses due to inactivity rust. As the winner, Nate Diaz capitalized on this activity level, while Anthony Pettis's 147-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Anthony Pettis | Nate Diaz |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 1 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 141 | 1 186 |
| ELO Change | -21 | +23 |
Nate Diaz started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Anthony Pettis is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Anthony Pettis | Nate Diaz |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Welterweight | Welterweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 071 | 1 116 |
| ELO Change | -21 | +21 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.
Why It Matters:
Extra bonuses are awarded for title victories and undefeated streaks. These bonuses are only calculated for certain fighters with notable performances. Only UFC champions and undefeated fighters (in the UFC) can receive these bonuses.