March 13, 2015
UFC Lightweight Title Bout
Title Fight
Click any category to learn how it's calculated.
Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Anthony Pettis | Rafael Dos Anjos |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 7 | 18 |
| Experience Gap | -11 | 11 |
| Experience ELO | 1 221 | 1 297 |
| ELO Change | -30 | +30 |
Rafael Dos Anjos's 11-fight experience advantage (18 vs 7 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Rafael Dos Anjos for the expected result. Had Anthony Pettis pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Anthony Pettis | Rafael Dos Anjos |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | Yes | Yes |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 178 | 1 233 |
| ELO Change | -23 | +70 |
Title fight! The championship stakes amplified the pressure. Rafael Dos Anjos captured the UFC Lightweight Title Bout with a title bonus.
| Metric | Anthony Pettis | Rafael Dos Anjos |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Unanimous | Decision - Unanimous |
| Last Round | 5 | 5 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 386 | 1 527 |
| ELO Change | -33 | +33 |
Rafael Dos Anjos earned a clear Decision - Unanimous, receiving full decision bonuses for controlling the fight across all rounds. Of course, a finish would have yielded even greater rewards.
| Metric | Anthony Pettis | Rafael Dos Anjos |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 54 | 90 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 162 | 171 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 96 | 144 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 443 | 1 518 |
| ELO Change | -32 | +32 |
Rafael Dos Anjos controlled the striking exchanges with 144 vs 96 total strikes, 90 vs 54 significant strikes, 52.6% vs 33.3% accuracy. Rafael Dos Anjos capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Anthony Pettis | Rafael Dos Anjos |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 9 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 1 | 10 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:52 | 14:42 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 21 |
| Ground ELO | 1 242 | 1 500 |
| ELO Change | -91 | +91 |
Rafael Dos Anjos dominated Anthony Pettis on the ground with 9 vs 0 takedowns, 14:42 of control time, 21 ground strikes, earning massive ground ELO bonuses.
| Metric | Anthony Pettis | Rafael Dos Anjos |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 98 | 91 |
| Activity ELO | 1 188 | 1 475 |
| ELO Change | -8 | +19 |
Rafael Dos Anjos demonstrated solid activity levels with 91 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Rafael Dos Anjos capitalized on this activity level, while Anthony Pettis's 98-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Anthony Pettis | Rafael Dos Anjos |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 4 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 137 | 1 247 |
| ELO Change | -17 | +24 |
Rafael Dos Anjos extended his 4-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Anthony Pettis is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Anthony Pettis | Rafael Dos Anjos |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Lightweight | Lightweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 086 | 1 174 |
| ELO Change | -18 | +18 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.
Why It Matters:
Extra bonuses are awarded for title victories and undefeated streaks. These bonuses are only calculated for certain fighters with notable performances. Only UFC champions and undefeated fighters (in the UFC) can receive these bonuses.