March 22, 2019
Welterweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Anthony Pettis | Stephen Thompson |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 16 | 14 |
| Experience Gap | 2 | -2 |
| Experience ELO | 1 255 | 1 227 |
| ELO Change | +35 | -35 |
Anthony Pettis's 2-fight experience advantage (16 vs 14 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Anthony Pettis for the expected result. Had Stephen Thompson pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Anthony Pettis | Stephen Thompson |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 148 | 1 107 |
| ELO Change | +21 | -21 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Anthony Pettis | Stephen Thompson |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | KO/TKO | KO/TKO |
| Last Round | 2 | 2 |
| Time of Finish | 4:55 | 4:55 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 501 | 1 453 |
| ELO Change | +115 | -56 |
Anthony Pettis gained a finish with a KO/TKO in round 2, earning finishing bonuses.
| Metric | Anthony Pettis | Stephen Thompson |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 32 | 47 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 55 | 107 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 32 | 47 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 1 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 366 | 1 367 |
| ELO Change | +140 | -140 |
Stephen Thompson controlled the striking through superior volume (47 vs 32 total strikes), significant strike advantage (47 vs 32), superior accuracy (43.9% vs 58.2%). However, since Stephen Thompson lost the overall fight, his striking superiority couldn't be converted into ELO bonuses. Anthony Pettis's positive striking ELO reflects the overall victory rather than striking dominance.
| Metric | Anthony Pettis | Stephen Thompson |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 0 | 0 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:01 | 0:00 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 2 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 1 236 | 1 208 |
| ELO Change | +69 | -69 |
Minimal ground action with brief exchanges. The low volume resulted in modest ground adjustments.
| Metric | Anthony Pettis | Stephen Thompson |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 169 | 301 |
| Activity ELO | 1 272 | 1 236 |
| ELO Change | +40 | -23 |
Anthony Pettis demonstrated solid activity levels with 169 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Anthony Pettis capitalized on this activity level, while Stephen Thompson's 301-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Anthony Pettis | Stephen Thompson |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 1 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 162 | 1 198 |
| ELO Change | +29 | -26 |
Anthony Pettis started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Stephen Thompson is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Anthony Pettis | Stephen Thompson |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Welterweight | Welterweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 092 | 1 095 |
| ELO Change | +24 | -24 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.
Why It Matters:
Extra bonuses are awarded for title victories and undefeated streaks. These bonuses are only calculated for certain fighters with notable performances. Only UFC champions and undefeated fighters (in the UFC) can receive these bonuses.