October 5, 2018
Lightweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Anthony Pettis | Tony Ferguson |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 15 | 15 |
| Experience Gap | 0 | 0 |
| Experience ELO | 1 220 | 1 401 |
| ELO Change | -12 | +19 |
Both fighters entered with identical experience levels (15 fights each). On this fight, close to zero experience-based adjustments were applied.
| Metric | Anthony Pettis | Tony Ferguson |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 127 | 1 240 |
| ELO Change | -16 | +16 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Anthony Pettis | Tony Ferguson |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | KO/TKO | KO/TKO |
| Last Round | 2 | 2 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 386 | 1 604 |
| ELO Change | -26 | +54 |
Tony Ferguson gained a finish with a KO/TKO in round 2, earning finishing bonuses.
| Metric | Anthony Pettis | Tony Ferguson |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 45 | 114 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 99 | 194 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 49 | 115 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 1 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 226 | 1 488 |
| ELO Change | -40 | +40 |
Tony Ferguson dominated the striking exchanges with 115 vs 49 total strikes, 114 vs 45 significant strikes, 58.8% vs 45.5% accuracy. Tony Ferguson capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Anthony Pettis | Tony Ferguson |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 0 | 0 |
| Ground Control Time | 1:11 | 0:04 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 5 | 4 |
| Ground ELO | 1 167 | 1 521 |
| ELO Change | -5 | +5 |
Tony Ferguson did not secure a significant ground advantage against Anthony Pettis on the ground with 4 ground strikes, with almost no grappling bonus.
| Metric | Anthony Pettis | Tony Ferguson |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 91 | 364 |
| Activity ELO | 1 232 | 1 476 |
| ELO Change | -9 | +9 |
Tony Ferguson demonstrated standard activity with 364 days since his last fight, earning no activity bonus. As the winner, Tony Ferguson capitalized on this activity level, while Anthony Pettis's 91-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Anthony Pettis | Tony Ferguson |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 11 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 133 | 1 470 |
| ELO Change | -7 | +42 |
Tony Ferguson extended his incredible 11-fight win streak, earning one of the highest possible momentum bonuses for sustained dominance. This elite-level consistency triggered exponential streak bonuses, while Anthony Pettis is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Anthony Pettis | Tony Ferguson |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Lightweight | Lightweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 068 | 1 231 |
| ELO Change | -13 | +13 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.
Why It Matters:
Extra bonuses are awarded for title victories and undefeated streaks. These bonuses are only calculated for certain fighters with notable performances. Only UFC champions and undefeated fighters (in the UFC) can receive these bonuses.