January 29, 2016
Lightweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Anthony Rocco Martin | Felipe Olivieri |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 5 | 1 |
| Experience Gap | 4 | -4 |
| Experience ELO | 1 010 | 966 |
| ELO Change | +34 | -34 |
Anthony Rocco Martin's 4-fight experience advantage (5 vs 1 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Anthony Rocco Martin for the expected result. Had Felipe Olivieri pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Anthony Rocco Martin | Felipe Olivieri |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 987 | 977 |
| ELO Change | +23 | -23 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Anthony Rocco Martin | Felipe Olivieri |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Submission | Submission |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 3:02 | 3:02 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 051 | 956 |
| ELO Change | +66 | -44 |
Anthony Rocco Martin earned a finish with a Submission in round 3 at 3:02, earning finishing bonuses for the submission. Felipe Olivieri was submitted.
| Metric | Anthony Rocco Martin | Felipe Olivieri |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 60 | 87 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 141 | 150 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 64 | 94 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 971 | 976 |
| ELO Change | +24 | -24 |
Felipe Olivieri controlled the striking through overwhelming volume (94 vs 64 total strikes), significant strike advantage (87 vs 60), superior accuracy (58.0% vs 42.6%). However, since Felipe Olivieri lost the overall fight, his striking superiority couldn't be converted into ELO bonuses. Anthony Rocco Martin's positive striking ELO reflects the overall victory rather than striking dominance.
| Metric | Anthony Rocco Martin | Felipe Olivieri |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 2 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 7 | 1 |
| Ground Control Time | 4:01 | 0:19 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 1 049 | 907 |
| ELO Change | +93 | -93 |
Anthony Rocco Martin controlled Felipe Olivieri on the ground with 2 vs 0 takedowns, 4:01 of control time, earning substantial ground ELO bonuses. The submission finish significantly amplified the grappling rewards.
| Metric | Anthony Rocco Martin | Felipe Olivieri |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 315 | N/A |
| Activity ELO | 1 030 | 980 |
| ELO Change | +20 | -20 |
Anthony Rocco Martin demonstrated standard activity with 315 days since his last fight, earning no activity bonus. As the winner, Anthony Rocco Martin capitalized on this activity level, while Felipe Olivieri's null-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Anthony Rocco Martin | Felipe Olivieri |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 1 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 992 | 977 |
| ELO Change | +25 | -23 |
Anthony Rocco Martin started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Felipe Olivieri is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Anthony Rocco Martin | Felipe Olivieri |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Lightweight | Lightweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 987 | 977 |
| ELO Change | +23 | -23 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.