July 7, 2016
Middleweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Anthony Smith | Cezar Ferreira |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 3 | 9 |
| Experience Gap | -6 | 6 |
| Experience ELO | 984 | 1 082 |
| ELO Change | -28 | +28 |
Cezar Ferreira's 6-fight experience advantage (9 vs 3 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Cezar Ferreira for the expected result. Had Anthony Smith pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Anthony Smith | Cezar Ferreira |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 982 | 1 053 |
| ELO Change | -19 | +19 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Anthony Smith | Cezar Ferreira |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Unanimous | Decision - Unanimous |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 975 | 1 134 |
| ELO Change | -30 | +30 |
Cezar Ferreira earned a clear Decision - Unanimous, receiving full decision bonuses for controlling the fight across all rounds. Of course, a finish would have yielded even greater rewards.
| Metric | Anthony Smith | Cezar Ferreira |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 33 | 30 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 63 | 51 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 41 | 120 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 956 | 981 |
| ELO Change | -41 | +41 |
Cezar Ferreira dominated the striking exchanges with 120 vs 41 total strikes. Cezar Ferreira capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Anthony Smith | Cezar Ferreira |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 6 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 0 | 6 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:03 | 8:40 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 1 | 6 |
| Ground ELO | 912 | 1 160 |
| ELO Change | -72 | +72 |
Cezar Ferreira dominated Anthony Smith on the ground with 6 vs 0 takedowns, 8:40 of control time, 6 ground strikes, earning massive ground ELO bonuses.
| Metric | Anthony Smith | Cezar Ferreira |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 138 | 83 |
| Activity ELO | 984 | 1 146 |
| ELO Change | -15 | +45 |
Cezar Ferreira demonstrated excellent fighting frequency with 83 days since his last fight, earning a solid activity bonus for maintaining rhythm. As the winner, Cezar Ferreira capitalized on this activity level, while Anthony Smith's 138-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Anthony Smith | Cezar Ferreira |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 2 |
| Win Streak ELO | 985 | 1 071 |
| ELO Change | -18 | +22 |
Cezar Ferreira extended his 2-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Anthony Smith is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Anthony Smith | Cezar Ferreira |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Middleweight | Middleweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 982 | 1 053 |
| ELO Change | -19 | +19 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.