September 15, 2017
Middleweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Anthony Smith | Hector Lombard |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 6 | 10 |
| Experience Gap | -4 | 4 |
| Experience ELO | 1 095 | 1 041 |
| ELO Change | +43 | -34 |
Anthony Smith overcame a 4-fight experience disadvantage (6 vs 10 fights), earning a reward for beating the more seasoned veteran Hector Lombard.
| Metric | Anthony Smith | Hector Lombard |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 045 | 981 |
| ELO Change | +19 | -19 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Anthony Smith | Hector Lombard |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | KO/TKO | KO/TKO |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 2:33 | 2:33 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 252 | 1 172 |
| ELO Change | +101 | -51 |
Anthony Smith gained a finish with a KO/TKO in round 3, earning finishing bonuses.
| Metric | Anthony Smith | Hector Lombard |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 35 | 65 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 115 | 134 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 38 | 68 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 1 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 225 | 1 055 |
| ELO Change | +83 | -83 |
Hector Lombard controlled the striking through overwhelming volume (68 vs 38 total strikes), significant strike advantage (65 vs 35), superior accuracy (48.5% vs 30.4%). However, since Hector Lombard lost the overall fight, his striking superiority couldn't be converted into ELO bonuses. Anthony Smith's positive striking ELO reflects the overall victory rather than striking dominance.
| Metric | Anthony Smith | Hector Lombard |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 1 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 1 | 2 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:03 | 1:36 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 2 | 3 |
| Ground ELO | 1 001 | 1 158 |
| ELO Change | +33 | -33 |
Anthony Smith landed 1 knockdown followed by 2 ground strikes. Few ground strikes after a knockdown do not qualify for major ground ELO bonus.
| Metric | Anthony Smith | Hector Lombard |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 154 | 209 |
| Activity ELO | 1 113 | 1 082 |
| ELO Change | +40 | -23 |
Anthony Smith demonstrated solid activity levels with 154 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Anthony Smith capitalized on this activity level, while Hector Lombard's 209-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Anthony Smith | Hector Lombard |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 3 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 062 | 1 001 |
| ELO Change | +26 | -20 |
Anthony Smith extended his 3-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Hector Lombard is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Anthony Smith | Hector Lombard |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Middleweight | Middleweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 045 | 975 |
| ELO Change | +19 | -19 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.

