March 1, 2019
UFC Light Heavyweight Title Bout
Title Fight
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Anthony Smith | Jon Jones |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 11 | 20 |
| Experience Gap | -9 | 9 |
| Experience ELO | 1 223 | 1 479 |
| ELO Change | -13 | +13 |
Jon Jones's 9-fight experience advantage (20 vs 11 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Jon Jones for the expected result. Had Anthony Smith pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Anthony Smith | Jon Jones |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | Yes | Yes |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 094 | 1 497 |
| ELO Change | -4 | +12 |
Title fight! The championship stakes amplified the pressure. Jon Jones captured the UFC Light Heavyweight Title Bout with a title bonus.
| Metric | Anthony Smith | Jon Jones |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Unanimous | Decision - Unanimous |
| Last Round | 5 | 5 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 516 | 1 794 |
| ELO Change | -17 | +17 |
Jon Jones earned a clear Decision - Unanimous, receiving full decision bonuses for controlling the fight across all rounds. Of course, a finish would have yielded even greater rewards.
| Metric | Anthony Smith | Jon Jones |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 36 | 125 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 66 | 167 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 45 | 238 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 446 | 1 809 |
| ELO Change | -16 | +16 |
Jon Jones dominated the striking exchanges with 238 vs 45 total strikes, 125 vs 36 significant strikes, 74.9% vs 54.5% accuracy. Jon Jones capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Anthony Smith | Jon Jones |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 3 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 0 | 8 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:00 | 12:59 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 30 |
| Ground ELO | 1 154 | 1 801 |
| ELO Change | -5 | +5 |
Jon Jones dominated Anthony Smith on the ground with 3 vs 0 takedowns, 12:59 of control time, 30 ground strikes, earning massive ground ELO bonuses.
| Metric | Anthony Smith | Jon Jones |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 127 | 63 |
| Activity ELO | 1 308 | 1 552 |
| ELO Change | -10 | +30 |
Jon Jones demonstrated excellent fighting frequency with 63 days since his last fight, earning a solid activity bonus for maintaining rhythm. As the winner, Jon Jones capitalized on this activity level, while Anthony Smith's 127-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Anthony Smith | Jon Jones |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 2 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 125 | 1 561 |
| ELO Change | -3 | +4 |
Jon Jones extended his 2-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Anthony Smith is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Anthony Smith | Jon Jones |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Light Heavyweight | Light Heavyweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 083 | 1 297 |
| ELO Change | -10 | +10 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.
Why It Matters:
Extra bonuses are awarded for title victories and undefeated streaks. These bonuses are only calculated for certain fighters with notable performances. Only UFC champions and undefeated fighters (in the UFC) can receive these bonuses.