February 20, 2016
Middleweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Anthony Smith | Leonardo Guimaraes |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 2 | 1 |
| Experience Gap | 1 | -1 |
| Experience ELO | 1 012 | 967 |
| ELO Change | +33 | -33 |
Both fighters entered with identical experience levels (2 fights each). On this fight, close to zero experience-based adjustments were applied.
| Metric | Anthony Smith | Leonardo Guimaraes |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 001 | 978 |
| ELO Change | +22 | -22 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Anthony Smith | Leonardo Guimaraes |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Unanimous | Decision - Unanimous |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 005 | 953 |
| ELO Change | +47 | -47 |
Anthony Smith earned a clear Decision - Unanimous, receiving full decision bonuses for controlling the fight across all rounds. Of course, a finish would have yielded even greater rewards.
| Metric | Anthony Smith | Leonardo Guimaraes |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 57 | 64 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 101 | 108 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 66 | 121 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 997 | 977 |
| ELO Change | +23 | -23 |
Leonardo Guimaraes controlled the striking through overwhelming volume (121 vs 66 total strikes), solid significant strike edge (64 vs 57). However, since Leonardo Guimaraes lost the overall fight, his striking superiority couldn't be converted into ELO bonuses. Anthony Smith's positive striking ELO reflects the overall victory rather than striking dominance.
| Metric | Anthony Smith | Leonardo Guimaraes |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 2 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 5 | 0 |
| Ground Control Time | 3:57 | 3:35 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 8 | 19 |
| Ground ELO | 984 | 960 |
| ELO Change | +40 | -40 |
Anthony Smith edged out Leonardo Guimaraes on the ground with 2 vs 0 takedowns, 3:57 of control time, 8 ground strikes, earning solid ground ELO bonuses.
| Metric | Anthony Smith | Leonardo Guimaraes |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 989 | N/A |
| Activity ELO | 999 | 978 |
| ELO Change | +20 | -22 |
Anthony Smith demonstrated extended layoff with 989 days since his last fight, earning reduced bonuses due to inactivity rust. As the winner, Anthony Smith capitalized on this activity level, while Leonardo Guimaraes's null-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Anthony Smith | Leonardo Guimaraes |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 1 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 003 | 978 |
| ELO Change | +24 | -22 |
Anthony Smith started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Leonardo Guimaraes is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Anthony Smith | Leonardo Guimaraes |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Middleweight | Middleweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 001 | 978 |
| ELO Change | +22 | -22 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.