Anthony Smith vs Ryan Spann

September 17, 2021

Light Heavyweight Bout

Click any category to learn how it's calculated.

1288
(+40)
Anthony Smith
Winner: Anthony Smith
Submission
Round 1 • 3:47

No Predictions Available

Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025

C-ELO Evolution

Anthony Smith+40
Ryan Spann-36
1135
(-36)
Ryan Spann

C-ELO™ Evolution Comparison

Fight Stats & ELO Performance

Experience ELO
ELO Changes
Anthony Smith: +27Ryan Spann: -27

Performance Statistics

MetricAnthony SmithRyan Spann
Total UFC Fights177
Experience Gap10-10
Experience ELO1 2701 169
ELO Change+27-27
💡

What Happened

Anthony Smith's 10-fight experience advantage (17 vs 7 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Anthony Smith for the expected result. Had Ryan Spann pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.

Title Fight ELO
ELO Changes
Anthony Smith: +19Ryan Spann: -19

Performance Statistics

MetricAnthony SmithRyan Spann
Title Fight ?NoNo
Title Fight ELO1 1331 061
ELO Change+19-19
💡

What Happened

This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.

Win Type ELO
ELO Changes
Anthony Smith: +40Ryan Spann: -24

Performance Statistics

MetricAnthony SmithRyan Spann
Fight OutcomeSubmissionSubmission
Last Round11
Time of Finish3:473:47
Win Type ELO1 5331 314
ELO Change+40-24
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What Happened

Anthony Smith earned an early finish with a Submission in round 1 at 3:47, gaining additional bonuses for the first-round submission.

Striking ELO
ELO Changes
Anthony Smith: +90Ryan Spann: -90

Performance Statistics

MetricAnthony SmithRyan Spann
Significant Strikes Landed178
Significant Strikes Attempted2820
Total Strikes Landed188
Knockdowns Scored20
Striking ELO1 3451 113
ELO Change+90-90
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What Happened

Anthony Smith dominated the striking exchanges with 17 vs 8 significant strikes, 60.7% vs 40.0% accuracy, including 2 devastating knockdowns. Anthony Smith capitalized on this striking dominance.

Ground ELO
ELO Changes
Anthony Smith: +80Ryan Spann: -80

Performance Statistics

MetricAnthony SmithRyan Spann
Takedowns Landed00
Takedowns Attempted01
Ground Control Time1:380:30
Ground Strikes Landed61
Ground ELO1 3541 135
ELO Change+80-80
💡

What Happened

Anthony Smith dominated Ryan Spann on the ground with 1:38 of control time, 6 ground strikes, earning massive ground ELO bonuses. The submission finish significantly amplified the grappling rewards.

Activity ELO
ELO Changes
Anthony Smith: +21Ryan Spann: -10

Performance Statistics

MetricAnthony SmithRyan Spann
Days Since Last Fight147189
Activity ELO1 3711 144
ELO Change+21-10
💡

What Happened

Anthony Smith demonstrated solid activity levels with 147 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Anthony Smith capitalized on this activity level, while Ryan Spann's 189-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.

Win Streak ELO
ELO Changes
Anthony Smith: +23Ryan Spann: -18

Performance Statistics

MetricAnthony SmithRyan Spann
Win Streak30
Win Streak ELO1 1761 085
ELO Change+23-18
💡

What Happened

Anthony Smith extended his 3-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Ryan Spann is back at 0 with this loss.

Basic/Category ELO
ELO Changes
Anthony Smith: +19Ryan Spann: -19

Performance Statistics

MetricAnthony SmithRyan Spann
Weight ClassLight HeavyweightLight Heavyweight
Double Championship FightNoNo
Basic/Category ELO1 1241 060
ELO Change+19-19
💡

What Happened

This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.