September 17, 2021
Light Heavyweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Anthony Smith | Ryan Spann |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 17 | 7 |
| Experience Gap | 10 | -10 |
| Experience ELO | 1 270 | 1 169 |
| ELO Change | +27 | -27 |
Anthony Smith's 10-fight experience advantage (17 vs 7 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Anthony Smith for the expected result. Had Ryan Spann pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Anthony Smith | Ryan Spann |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 133 | 1 061 |
| ELO Change | +19 | -19 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Anthony Smith | Ryan Spann |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Submission | Submission |
| Last Round | 1 | 1 |
| Time of Finish | 3:47 | 3:47 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 533 | 1 314 |
| ELO Change | +40 | -24 |
Anthony Smith earned an early finish with a Submission in round 1 at 3:47, gaining additional bonuses for the first-round submission.
| Metric | Anthony Smith | Ryan Spann |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 17 | 8 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 28 | 20 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 18 | 8 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 2 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 345 | 1 113 |
| ELO Change | +90 | -90 |
Anthony Smith dominated the striking exchanges with 17 vs 8 significant strikes, 60.7% vs 40.0% accuracy, including 2 devastating knockdowns. Anthony Smith capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Anthony Smith | Ryan Spann |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 0 | 1 |
| Ground Control Time | 1:38 | 0:30 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 6 | 1 |
| Ground ELO | 1 354 | 1 135 |
| ELO Change | +80 | -80 |
Anthony Smith dominated Ryan Spann on the ground with 1:38 of control time, 6 ground strikes, earning massive ground ELO bonuses. The submission finish significantly amplified the grappling rewards.
| Metric | Anthony Smith | Ryan Spann |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 147 | 189 |
| Activity ELO | 1 371 | 1 144 |
| ELO Change | +21 | -10 |
Anthony Smith demonstrated solid activity levels with 147 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Anthony Smith capitalized on this activity level, while Ryan Spann's 189-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Anthony Smith | Ryan Spann |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 3 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 176 | 1 085 |
| ELO Change | +23 | -18 |
Anthony Smith extended his 3-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Ryan Spann is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Anthony Smith | Ryan Spann |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Light Heavyweight | Light Heavyweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 124 | 1 060 |
| ELO Change | +19 | -19 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.

