February 2, 2018
Middleweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Anthony Smith | Thiago Santos |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 7 | 13 |
| Experience Gap | -6 | 6 |
| Experience ELO | 1 070 | 1 192 |
| ELO Change | -25 | +25 |
Thiago Santos's 6-fight experience advantage (13 vs 7 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Thiago Santos for the expected result. Had Anthony Smith pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Anthony Smith | Thiago Santos |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 026 | 1 104 |
| ELO Change | -19 | +19 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Anthony Smith | Thiago Santos |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | KO/TKO | KO/TKO |
| Last Round | 2 | 2 |
| Time of Finish | 1:03 | 1:03 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 227 | 1 451 |
| ELO Change | -25 | +51 |
Thiago Santos gained a finish with a KO/TKO in round 2, earning finishing bonuses.
| Metric | Anthony Smith | Thiago Santos |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 10 | 58 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 22 | 82 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 13 | 80 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 2 |
| Striking ELO | 1 148 | 1 507 |
| ELO Change | -77 | +77 |
Thiago Santos dominated the striking exchanges with 80 vs 13 total strikes, 58 vs 10 significant strikes, 70.7% vs 45.5% accuracy, including 2 devastating knockdowns. Thiago Santos capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Anthony Smith | Thiago Santos |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 1 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 3 | 1 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:50 | 3:19 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 1 | 42 |
| Ground ELO | 968 | 1 235 |
| ELO Change | -33 | +33 |
Thiago Santos controlled Anthony Smith on the ground with 0 takedowns, 3:19 of control time, 42 ground strikes, earning substantial ground ELO bonuses.
| Metric | Anthony Smith | Thiago Santos |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 141 | 99 |
| Activity ELO | 1 098 | 1 246 |
| ELO Change | -15 | +38 |
Thiago Santos demonstrated solid activity levels with 99 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Thiago Santos capitalized on this activity level, while Anthony Smith's 141-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Anthony Smith | Thiago Santos |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 4 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 044 | 1 142 |
| ELO Change | -18 | +25 |
Thiago Santos extended his 4-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Anthony Smith is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Anthony Smith | Thiago Santos |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Middleweight | Middleweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 026 | 1 104 |
| ELO Change | -19 | +19 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.

