Anthony Smith vs Thiago Santos

February 2, 2018

Middleweight Bout

Click any category to learn how it's calculated.

1076
(-29)
Anthony Smith
Winner: Thiago Santos
KO/TKO
Round 2 • 1:03

No Predictions Available

Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025

C-ELO Evolution

Anthony Smith-29
Thiago Santos+36
1248
(+36)
Thiago Santos

C-ELO™ Evolution Comparison

Fight Stats & ELO Performance

Experience ELO
ELO Changes
Anthony Smith: -25Thiago Santos: +25

Performance Statistics

MetricAnthony SmithThiago Santos
Total UFC Fights713
Experience Gap-66
Experience ELO1 0701 192
ELO Change-25+25
💡

What Happened

Thiago Santos's 6-fight experience advantage (13 vs 7 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Thiago Santos for the expected result. Had Anthony Smith pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.

Title Fight ELO
ELO Changes
Anthony Smith: -19Thiago Santos: +19

Performance Statistics

MetricAnthony SmithThiago Santos
Title Fight ?NoNo
Title Fight ELO1 0261 104
ELO Change-19+19
💡

What Happened

This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.

Win Type ELO
ELO Changes
Anthony Smith: -25Thiago Santos: +51

Performance Statistics

MetricAnthony SmithThiago Santos
Fight OutcomeKO/TKOKO/TKO
Last Round22
Time of Finish1:031:03
Win Type ELO1 2271 451
ELO Change-25+51
💡

What Happened

Thiago Santos gained a finish with a KO/TKO in round 2, earning finishing bonuses.

Striking ELO
ELO Changes
Anthony Smith: -77Thiago Santos: +77

Performance Statistics

MetricAnthony SmithThiago Santos
Significant Strikes Landed1058
Significant Strikes Attempted2282
Total Strikes Landed1380
Knockdowns Scored02
Striking ELO1 1481 507
ELO Change-77+77
💡

What Happened

Thiago Santos dominated the striking exchanges with 80 vs 13 total strikes, 58 vs 10 significant strikes, 70.7% vs 45.5% accuracy, including 2 devastating knockdowns. Thiago Santos capitalized on this striking dominance.

Ground ELO
ELO Changes
Anthony Smith: -33Thiago Santos: +33

Performance Statistics

MetricAnthony SmithThiago Santos
Takedowns Landed10
Takedowns Attempted31
Ground Control Time0:503:19
Ground Strikes Landed142
Ground ELO9681 235
ELO Change-33+33
💡

What Happened

Thiago Santos controlled Anthony Smith on the ground with 0 takedowns, 3:19 of control time, 42 ground strikes, earning substantial ground ELO bonuses.

Activity ELO
ELO Changes
Anthony Smith: -15Thiago Santos: +38

Performance Statistics

MetricAnthony SmithThiago Santos
Days Since Last Fight14199
Activity ELO1 0981 246
ELO Change-15+38
💡

What Happened

Thiago Santos demonstrated solid activity levels with 99 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Thiago Santos capitalized on this activity level, while Anthony Smith's 141-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.

Win Streak ELO
ELO Changes
Anthony Smith: -18Thiago Santos: +25

Performance Statistics

MetricAnthony SmithThiago Santos
Win Streak04
Win Streak ELO1 0441 142
ELO Change-18+25
💡

What Happened

Thiago Santos extended his 4-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Anthony Smith is back at 0 with this loss.

Basic/Category ELO
ELO Changes
Anthony Smith: -19Thiago Santos: +19

Performance Statistics

MetricAnthony SmithThiago Santos
Weight ClassMiddleweightMiddleweight
Double Championship FightNoNo
Basic/Category ELO1 0261 104
ELO Change-19+19
💡

What Happened

This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.