October 26, 2018
Light Heavyweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Anthony Smith | Volkan Oezdemir |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 10 | 5 |
| Experience Gap | 5 | -5 |
| Experience ELO | 1 236 | 1 161 |
| ELO Change | +30 | -30 |
Anthony Smith's 5-fight experience advantage (10 vs 5 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Anthony Smith for the expected result. Had Volkan Oezdemir pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Anthony Smith | Volkan Oezdemir |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 098 | 1 044 |
| ELO Change | +20 | -20 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Anthony Smith | Volkan Oezdemir |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Submission | Submission |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 4:26 | 4:26 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 533 | 1 335 |
| ELO Change | +40 | -27 |
Anthony Smith earned a finish with a Submission in round 3 at 4:26, earning finishing bonuses for the submission. Volkan Oezdemir was submitted.
| Metric | Anthony Smith | Volkan Oezdemir |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 63 | 77 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 117 | 148 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 67 | 103 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 462 | 1 276 |
| ELO Change | +12 | -12 |
Volkan Oezdemir controlled the striking through overwhelming volume (103 vs 67 total strikes), significant strike advantage (77 vs 63). However, since Volkan Oezdemir lost the overall fight, his striking superiority couldn't be converted into ELO bonuses. Anthony Smith's positive striking ELO reflects the overall victory rather than striking dominance.
| Metric | Anthony Smith | Volkan Oezdemir |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 1 | 1 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 3 | 1 |
| Ground Control Time | 1:29 | 4:56 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 1 | 23 |
| Ground ELO | 1 159 | 1 097 |
| ELO Change | +65 | -65 |
Anthony Smith controlled Volkan Oezdemir on the ground with 1 takedown, 1:29 of control time, 1 ground strike, earning substantial ground ELO bonuses. The submission finish significantly amplified the grappling rewards.
| Metric | Anthony Smith | Volkan Oezdemir |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 97 | 280 |
| Activity ELO | 1 318 | 1 148 |
| ELO Change | +35 | -14 |
Anthony Smith demonstrated solid activity levels with 97 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Anthony Smith capitalized on this activity level, while Volkan Oezdemir's 280-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Anthony Smith | Volkan Oezdemir |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 3 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 128 | 1 060 |
| ELO Change | +26 | -20 |
Anthony Smith extended his 3-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Volkan Oezdemir is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Anthony Smith | Volkan Oezdemir |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Light Heavyweight | Light Heavyweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 093 | 1 038 |
| ELO Change | +20 | -20 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.