July 7, 2016
Welterweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Anton Zafir | Li Jingliang |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 2 | 5 |
| Experience Gap | -3 | 3 |
| Experience ELO | 939 | 1 032 |
| ELO Change | -28 | +28 |
Li Jingliang's 3-fight experience advantage (5 vs 2 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Li Jingliang for the expected result. Had Anton Zafir pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Anton Zafir | Li Jingliang |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 958 | 1 014 |
| ELO Change | -20 | +20 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Anton Zafir | Li Jingliang |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | KO/TKO | KO/TKO |
| Last Round | 1 | 1 |
| Time of Finish | 2:46 | 2:46 |
| Win Type ELO | 927 | 1 107 |
| ELO Change | -33 | +75 |
Li Jingliang earned an early finish with a KO/TKO in round 1 at 2:46, gaining additional bonuses for the first-round stoppage.
| Metric | Anton Zafir | Li Jingliang |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 5 | 6 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 9 | 15 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 15 | 11 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 875 | 1 035 |
| ELO Change | -43 | +43 |
Anton Zafir controlled the striking through superior accuracy (55.6% vs 40.0%). However, since Anton Zafir lost the overall fight, his striking superiority couldn't be converted into ELO bonuses. Li Jingliang's positive striking ELO reflects the overall victory rather than striking dominance.
| Metric | Anton Zafir | Li Jingliang |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 2 | 1 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 2 | 1 |
| Ground Control Time | 1:21 | 0:20 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 5 |
| Ground ELO | 946 | 1 014 |
| ELO Change | -34 | +34 |
Li Jingliang edged out Anton Zafir on the ground with 1 takedown, 0:20 of control time, 5 ground strikes, earning solid ground ELO bonuses.
| Metric | Anton Zafir | Li Jingliang |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 237 | 286 |
| Activity ELO | 959 | 1 021 |
| ELO Change | -20 | +20 |
Li Jingliang demonstrated standard activity with 286 days since his last fight, earning no activity bonus. As the winner, Li Jingliang capitalized on this activity level, while Anton Zafir's 237-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Anton Zafir | Li Jingliang |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 1 |
| Win Streak ELO | 958 | 1 020 |
| ELO Change | -20 | +22 |
Li Jingliang started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Anton Zafir is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Anton Zafir | Li Jingliang |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Welterweight | Welterweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 958 | 1 014 |
| ELO Change | -20 | +20 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.