October 1, 2021
Women's Flyweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Antonina Shevchenko | Casey O'Neill |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 7 | 3 |
| Experience Gap | 4 | -4 |
| Experience ELO | 1 005 | 1 125 |
| ELO Change | -26 | +33 |
Casey O'Neill overcame a 4-fight experience disadvantage (3 vs 7 fights), earning a reward for beating the more seasoned veteran Antonina Shevchenko.
| Metric | Antonina Shevchenko | Casey O'Neill |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 979 | 1 058 |
| ELO Change | -18 | +18 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Antonina Shevchenko | Casey O'Neill |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | KO/TKO | KO/TKO |
| Last Round | 2 | 2 |
| Time of Finish | 4:47 | 4:47 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 057 | 1 222 |
| ELO Change | -35 | +72 |
Casey O'Neill gained a finish with a KO/TKO in round 2, earning finishing bonuses.
| Metric | Antonina Shevchenko | Casey O'Neill |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 40 | 52 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 63 | 110 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 58 | 128 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 996 | 1 161 |
| ELO Change | -57 | +57 |
Casey O'Neill dominated the striking exchanges with 128 vs 58 total strikes, 52 vs 40 significant strikes, 47.3% vs 63.5% accuracy. Casey O'Neill capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Antonina Shevchenko | Casey O'Neill |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 3 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 1 | 8 |
| Ground Control Time | 1:12 | 5:39 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 8 | 37 |
| Ground ELO | 833 | 1 221 |
| ELO Change | -16 | +16 |
Casey O'Neill controlled Antonina Shevchenko on the ground with 3 vs 0 takedowns, 5:39 of control time, 37 ground strikes, earning substantial ground ELO bonuses.
| Metric | Antonina Shevchenko | Casey O'Neill |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 140 | 105 |
| Activity ELO | 1 030 | 1 119 |
| ELO Change | -20 | +49 |
Casey O'Neill demonstrated solid activity levels with 105 days since her last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Casey O'Neill capitalized on this activity level, while Antonina Shevchenko's 140-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Antonina Shevchenko | Casey O'Neill |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 3 |
| Win Streak ELO | 986 | 1 070 |
| ELO Change | -19 | +24 |
Casey O'Neill extended her 3-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Antonina Shevchenko is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Antonina Shevchenko | Casey O'Neill |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Women's Flyweight | Women's Flyweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 978 | 1 058 |
| ELO Change | -18 | +18 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.