April 19, 2019
Women's Flyweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Antonina Shevchenko | Roxanne Modafferi |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 2 | 5 |
| Experience Gap | -3 | 3 |
| Experience ELO | 1 033 | 975 |
| ELO Change | -44 | +44 |
Roxanne Modafferi's 3-fight experience advantage (5 vs 2 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Roxanne Modafferi for the expected result. Had Antonina Shevchenko pulled off the upset, her experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Antonina Shevchenko | Roxanne Modafferi |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 997 | 987 |
| ELO Change | -25 | +25 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Antonina Shevchenko | Roxanne Modafferi |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Split | Decision - Split |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 027 | 996 |
| ELO Change | -12 | +12 |
The controversial Decision - Split reflected a closely contested battle, with Roxanne Modafferi receiving reduced bonuses due to the lack of clear domination.
| Metric | Antonina Shevchenko | Roxanne Modafferi |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 64 | 33 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 116 | 79 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 87 | 105 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 005 | 992 |
| ELO Change | -28 | +28 |
Antonina Shevchenko controlled the striking through superior volume (87 vs 105 total strikes), significant strike advantage (64 vs 33), superior accuracy (55.2% vs 41.8%). However, since Antonina Shevchenko lost the overall fight, her striking superiority couldn't be converted into ELO bonuses. Roxanne Modafferi's positive striking ELO reflects the overall victory rather than striking dominance.
| Metric | Antonina Shevchenko | Roxanne Modafferi |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 5 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 0 | 6 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:50 | 9:00 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 5 | 12 |
| Ground ELO | 956 | 1 024 |
| ELO Change | -119 | +119 |
Roxanne Modafferi controlled Antonina Shevchenko on the ground with 5 vs 0 takedowns, 9:00 of control time, 12 ground strikes, earning substantial ground ELO bonuses.
| Metric | Antonina Shevchenko | Roxanne Modafferi |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 141 | 168 |
| Activity ELO | 1 000 | 1 011 |
| ELO Change | -24 | +43 |
Roxanne Modafferi demonstrated solid activity levels with 168 days since her last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Roxanne Modafferi capitalized on this activity level, while Antonina Shevchenko's 141-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Antonina Shevchenko | Roxanne Modafferi |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 1 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 000 | 991 |
| ELO Change | -25 | +27 |
Roxanne Modafferi started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Antonina Shevchenko is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Antonina Shevchenko | Roxanne Modafferi |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Women's Flyweight | Women's Flyweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 997 | 987 |
| ELO Change | -25 | +25 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.