December 18, 2020
Catch Weight Bout
Click any category to learn how it's calculated.
Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Antonio Arroyo | Deron Winn |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 2 | 4 |
| Experience Gap | -2 | 2 |
| Experience ELO | 949 | 1 025 |
| ELO Change | -30 | +30 |
Deron Winn's 2-fight experience advantage (4 vs 2 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Deron Winn for the expected result. Had Antonio Arroyo pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Antonio Arroyo | Deron Winn |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 958 | 997 |
| ELO Change | -21 | +21 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Antonio Arroyo | Deron Winn |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Unanimous | Decision - Unanimous |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 923 | 1 050 |
| ELO Change | -35 | +35 |
Deron Winn earned a clear Decision - Unanimous, receiving full decision bonuses for controlling the fight across all rounds. Of course, a finish would have yielded even greater rewards.
| Metric | Antonio Arroyo | Deron Winn |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 45 | 20 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 62 | 38 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 70 | 64 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 948 | 960 |
| ELO Change | -23 | +23 |
Antonio Arroyo controlled the striking through significant strike advantage (45 vs 20), superior accuracy (72.6% vs 52.6%). However, since Antonio Arroyo lost the overall fight, his striking superiority couldn't be converted into ELO bonuses. Deron Winn's positive striking ELO reflects the overall victory rather than striking dominance.
| Metric | Antonio Arroyo | Deron Winn |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 12 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 0 | 16 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:28 | 9:29 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 2 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 873 | 1 027 |
| ELO Change | -86 | +86 |
Deron Winn controlled Antonio Arroyo on the ground with 12 vs 0 takedowns, 9:29 of control time, earning substantial ground ELO bonuses.
| Metric | Antonio Arroyo | Deron Winn |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 399 | 287 |
| Activity ELO | 959 | 1 009 |
| ELO Change | -20 | +20 |
Deron Winn demonstrated standard activity with 287 days since his last fight, earning no activity bonus. As the winner, Deron Winn capitalized on this activity level, while Antonio Arroyo's 399-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Antonio Arroyo | Deron Winn |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 1 |
| Win Streak ELO | 958 | 1 003 |
| ELO Change | -21 | +23 |
Deron Winn started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Antonio Arroyo is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Antonio Arroyo | Deron Winn |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | N/A | N/A |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 958 | 997 |
| ELO Change | -21 | +21 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.

