Antonio Arroyo vs Deron Winn

December 18, 2020

Catch Weight Bout

Click any category to learn how it's calculated.

941
(-32)
Antonio Arroyo
Winner: Deron Winn
Decision - Unanimous
Round 3 • 5:00

No Predictions Available

Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025

C-ELO Evolution

Antonio Arroyo-32
Deron Winn+33
1009
(+33)
Deron Winn

C-ELO™ Evolution Comparison

Fight Stats & ELO Performance

Experience ELO
ELO Changes
Antonio Arroyo: -30Deron Winn: +30

Performance Statistics

MetricAntonio ArroyoDeron Winn
Total UFC Fights24
Experience Gap-22
Experience ELO9491 025
ELO Change-30+30
💡

What Happened

Deron Winn's 2-fight experience advantage (4 vs 2 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Deron Winn for the expected result. Had Antonio Arroyo pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.

Title Fight ELO
ELO Changes
Antonio Arroyo: -21Deron Winn: +21

Performance Statistics

MetricAntonio ArroyoDeron Winn
Title Fight ?NoNo
Title Fight ELO958997
ELO Change-21+21
💡

What Happened

This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.

Win Type ELO
ELO Changes
Antonio Arroyo: -35Deron Winn: +35

Performance Statistics

MetricAntonio ArroyoDeron Winn
Fight OutcomeDecision - UnanimousDecision - Unanimous
Last Round33
Time of Finish5:005:00
Win Type ELO9231 050
ELO Change-35+35
💡

What Happened

Deron Winn earned a clear Decision - Unanimous, receiving full decision bonuses for controlling the fight across all rounds. Of course, a finish would have yielded even greater rewards.

Striking ELO
ELO Changes
Antonio Arroyo: -23Deron Winn: +23

Performance Statistics

MetricAntonio ArroyoDeron Winn
Significant Strikes Landed4520
Significant Strikes Attempted6238
Total Strikes Landed7064
Knockdowns Scored00
Striking ELO948960
ELO Change-23+23
💡

What Happened

Antonio Arroyo controlled the striking through significant strike advantage (45 vs 20), superior accuracy (72.6% vs 52.6%). However, since Antonio Arroyo lost the overall fight, his striking superiority couldn't be converted into ELO bonuses. Deron Winn's positive striking ELO reflects the overall victory rather than striking dominance.

Ground ELO
ELO Changes
Antonio Arroyo: -86Deron Winn: +86

Performance Statistics

MetricAntonio ArroyoDeron Winn
Takedowns Landed012
Takedowns Attempted016
Ground Control Time0:289:29
Ground Strikes Landed20
Ground ELO8731 027
ELO Change-86+86
💡

What Happened

Deron Winn controlled Antonio Arroyo on the ground with 12 vs 0 takedowns, 9:29 of control time, earning substantial ground ELO bonuses.

Activity ELO
ELO Changes
Antonio Arroyo: -20Deron Winn: +20

Performance Statistics

MetricAntonio ArroyoDeron Winn
Days Since Last Fight399287
Activity ELO9591 009
ELO Change-20+20
💡

What Happened

Deron Winn demonstrated standard activity with 287 days since his last fight, earning no activity bonus. As the winner, Deron Winn capitalized on this activity level, while Antonio Arroyo's 399-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.

Win Streak ELO
ELO Changes
Antonio Arroyo: -21Deron Winn: +23

Performance Statistics

MetricAntonio ArroyoDeron Winn
Win Streak01
Win Streak ELO9581 003
ELO Change-21+23
💡

What Happened

Deron Winn started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Antonio Arroyo is back at 0 with this loss.

Basic/Category ELO
ELO Changes
Antonio Arroyo: -21Deron Winn: +21

Performance Statistics

MetricAntonio ArroyoDeron Winn
Weight ClassN/AN/A
Double Championship FightNoNo
Basic/Category ELO958997
ELO Change-21+21
💡

What Happened

This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.