September 17, 2021
Middleweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Antonio Arroyo | Joaquin Buckley |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 3 | 5 |
| Experience Gap | -2 | 2 |
| Experience ELO | 923 | 1 032 |
| ELO Change | -26 | +26 |
Joaquin Buckley's 2-fight experience advantage (5 vs 3 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Joaquin Buckley for the expected result. Had Antonio Arroyo pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Antonio Arroyo | Joaquin Buckley |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 940 | 1 020 |
| ELO Change | -18 | +18 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Antonio Arroyo | Joaquin Buckley |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | KO/TKO | KO/TKO |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 2:26 | 2:26 |
| Win Type ELO | 900 | 1 136 |
| ELO Change | -23 | +46 |
Joaquin Buckley gained a finish with a KO/TKO in round 3, earning finishing bonuses.
| Metric | Antonio Arroyo | Joaquin Buckley |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 21 | 41 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 46 | 102 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 30 | 45 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 1 |
| Striking ELO | 863 | 1 082 |
| ELO Change | -85 | +85 |
Joaquin Buckley controlled the striking exchanges with 41 vs 21 significant strikes, including 1 devastating knockdown. Joaquin Buckley capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Antonio Arroyo | Joaquin Buckley |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 1 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 0 | 6 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:24 | 1:18 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 5 |
| Ground ELO | 838 | 1 063 |
| ELO Change | -35 | +35 |
Joaquin Buckley landed 1 knockdown followed by 5 ground strikes. Few ground strikes after a knockdown do not qualify for major ground ELO bonus.
| Metric | Antonio Arroyo | Joaquin Buckley |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 273 | 245 |
| Activity ELO | 947 | 1 135 |
| ELO Change | -12 | +15 |
Joaquin Buckley demonstrated standard activity with 245 days since his last fight, earning a small activity bonus for reasonable scheduling. As the winner, Joaquin Buckley capitalized on this activity level, while Antonio Arroyo's 273-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Antonio Arroyo | Joaquin Buckley |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 1 |
| Win Streak ELO | 940 | 1 030 |
| ELO Change | -18 | +20 |
Joaquin Buckley started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Antonio Arroyo is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Antonio Arroyo | Joaquin Buckley |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Middleweight | Middleweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 940 | 1 020 |
| ELO Change | -18 | +18 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.