January 22, 2021
Middleweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Antonio Carlos Junior | Brad Tavares |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 13 | 19 |
| Experience Gap | -6 | 6 |
| Experience ELO | 1 089 | 1 173 |
| ELO Change | -29 | +29 |
Brad Tavares's 6-fight experience advantage (19 vs 13 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Brad Tavares for the expected result. Had Antonio Carlos Junior pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Antonio Carlos Junior | Brad Tavares |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 032 | 1 107 |
| ELO Change | -19 | +19 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Antonio Carlos Junior | Brad Tavares |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Unanimous | Decision - Unanimous |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 225 | 1 275 |
| ELO Change | -47 | +47 |
Brad Tavares earned a clear Decision - Unanimous, receiving full decision bonuses for controlling the fight across all rounds. Of course, a finish would have yielded even greater rewards.
| Metric | Antonio Carlos Junior | Brad Tavares |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 34 | 54 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 103 | 108 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 57 | 73 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 080 | 1 088 |
| ELO Change | -36 | +36 |
Brad Tavares controlled the striking exchanges with 54 vs 34 significant strikes, 50.0% vs 33.0% accuracy. Brad Tavares capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Antonio Carlos Junior | Brad Tavares |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 1 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 12 | 0 |
| Ground Control Time | 6:28 | 0:05 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 1 284 | 1 144 |
| ELO Change | -32 | +32 |
Brad Tavares did not secure a significant ground advantage against Antonio Carlos Junior on the ground with 0 takedowns, with almost no grappling bonus.
| Metric | Antonio Carlos Junior | Brad Tavares |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 498 | 448 |
| Activity ELO | 1 138 | 1 229 |
| ELO Change | -18 | +16 |
Brad Tavares demonstrated extended layoff with 448 days since his last fight, earning reduced bonuses due to inactivity rust. As the winner, Brad Tavares capitalized on this activity level, while Antonio Carlos Junior's 498-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Antonio Carlos Junior | Brad Tavares |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 1 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 072 | 1 155 |
| ELO Change | -18 | +20 |
Brad Tavares started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Antonio Carlos Junior is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Antonio Carlos Junior | Brad Tavares |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Middleweight | Middleweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 032 | 1 107 |
| ELO Change | -19 | +19 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.

