March 18, 2016
Middleweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Antonio Carlos Junior | Daniel Kelly |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 5 | 5 |
| Experience Gap | 0 | 0 |
| Experience ELO | 1 006 | 1 111 |
| ELO Change | -17 | +26 |
Both fighters entered with identical experience levels (5 fights each). On this fight, close to zero experience-based adjustments were applied.
| Metric | Antonio Carlos Junior | Daniel Kelly |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 000 | 1 059 |
| ELO Change | -20 | +20 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Antonio Carlos Junior | Daniel Kelly |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | KO/TKO | KO/TKO |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 1:36 | 1:36 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 039 | 1 183 |
| ELO Change | -39 | +77 |
Daniel Kelly gained a finish with a KO/TKO in round 3, earning finishing bonuses.
| Metric | Antonio Carlos Junior | Daniel Kelly |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 33 | 37 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 62 | 88 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 52 | 57 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 956 | 1 038 |
| ELO Change | -62 | +62 |
Daniel Kelly slightly outperformed the striking exchanges with 42.0% vs 53.2% accuracy. Daniel Kelly capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Antonio Carlos Junior | Daniel Kelly |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 2 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 9 | 1 |
| Ground Control Time | 4:58 | 1:13 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 5 | 26 |
| Ground ELO | 1 107 | 1 167 |
| ELO Change | -25 | +25 |
Daniel Kelly did not secure a significant ground advantage against Antonio Carlos Junior on the ground with 0 takedowns, 1:13 of control time, 26 ground strikes, with almost no grappling bonus.
| Metric | Antonio Carlos Junior | Daniel Kelly |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 100 | 126 |
| Activity ELO | 1 013 | 1 113 |
| ELO Change | -18 | +36 |
Daniel Kelly demonstrated solid activity levels with 126 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Daniel Kelly capitalized on this activity level, while Antonio Carlos Junior's 100-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Antonio Carlos Junior | Daniel Kelly |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 2 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 005 | 1 070 |
| ELO Change | -20 | +24 |
Daniel Kelly extended his 2-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Antonio Carlos Junior is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Antonio Carlos Junior | Daniel Kelly |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Middleweight | Middleweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 000 | 1 059 |
| ELO Change | -20 | +20 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.