June 2, 2017
Middleweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Antonio Carlos Junior | Eric Spicely |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 8 | 4 |
| Experience Gap | 4 | -4 |
| Experience ELO | 1 099 | 1 035 |
| ELO Change | +31 | -31 |
Antonio Carlos Junior's 4-fight experience advantage (8 vs 4 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Antonio Carlos Junior for the expected result. Had Eric Spicely pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Antonio Carlos Junior | Eric Spicely |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 061 | 1 005 |
| ELO Change | +20 | -20 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Antonio Carlos Junior | Eric Spicely |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Submission | Submission |
| Last Round | 2 | 2 |
| Time of Finish | 3:49 | 3:49 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 196 | 1 107 |
| ELO Change | +70 | -45 |
Antonio Carlos Junior earned a finish with a Submission in round 2 at 3:49, earning finishing bonuses for the submission. Eric Spicely was submitted.
| Metric | Antonio Carlos Junior | Eric Spicely |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 12 | 17 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 23 | 26 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 37 | 39 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 073 | 1 063 |
| ELO Change | +23 | -23 |
Eric Spicely controlled the striking through solid significant strike edge (17 vs 12), superior accuracy (65.4% vs 52.2%). However, since Eric Spicely lost the overall fight, his striking superiority couldn't be converted into ELO bonuses. Antonio Carlos Junior's positive striking ELO reflects the overall victory rather than striking dominance.
| Metric | Antonio Carlos Junior | Eric Spicely |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 1 | 1 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 1 | 2 |
| Ground Control Time | 4:48 | 0:35 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 11 | 16 |
| Ground ELO | 1 327 | 1 129 |
| ELO Change | +54 | -54 |
Antonio Carlos Junior controlled Eric Spicely on the ground with 1 takedown, 4:48 of control time, 11 ground strikes, earning substantial ground ELO bonuses. The submission finish significantly amplified the grappling rewards.
| Metric | Antonio Carlos Junior | Eric Spicely |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 155 | 126 |
| Activity ELO | 1 126 | 1 087 |
| ELO Change | +39 | -22 |
Antonio Carlos Junior demonstrated solid activity levels with 155 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Antonio Carlos Junior capitalized on this activity level, while Eric Spicely's 126-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Antonio Carlos Junior | Eric Spicely |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 3 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 077 | 1 014 |
| ELO Change | +26 | -20 |
Antonio Carlos Junior extended his 3-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Eric Spicely is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Antonio Carlos Junior | Eric Spicely |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Middleweight | Middleweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 061 | 1 005 |
| ELO Change | +20 | -20 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.

