May 17, 2019
Middleweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Antonio Carlos Junior | Ian Heinisch |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 11 | 2 |
| Experience Gap | 9 | -9 |
| Experience ELO | 1 155 | 1 188 |
| ELO Change | -37 | +59 |
Ian Heinisch overcame a 9-fight experience disadvantage (2 vs 11 fights), earning a reward for beating the more seasoned veteran Antonio Carlos Junior.
| Metric | Antonio Carlos Junior | Ian Heinisch |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 075 | 1 051 |
| ELO Change | -25 | +25 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Antonio Carlos Junior | Ian Heinisch |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Unanimous | Decision - Unanimous |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 282 | 1 136 |
| ELO Change | -71 | +71 |
Ian Heinisch earned a clear Decision - Unanimous, receiving full decision bonuses for controlling the fight across all rounds. Of course, a finish would have yielded even greater rewards.
| Metric | Antonio Carlos Junior | Ian Heinisch |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 15 | 39 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 33 | 67 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 25 | 79 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 164 | 1 155 |
| ELO Change | -70 | +70 |
Ian Heinisch dominated the striking exchanges with 79 vs 25 total strikes, 39 vs 15 significant strikes, 58.2% vs 45.5% accuracy. Ian Heinisch capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Antonio Carlos Junior | Ian Heinisch |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 4 | 1 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 11 | 1 |
| Ground Control Time | 6:24 | 4:42 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 2 | 21 |
| Ground ELO | 1 360 | 1 116 |
| ELO Change | -60 | +60 |
Ian Heinisch edged out Antonio Carlos Junior on the ground with 1 takedown, 4:42 of control time, 21 ground strikes, earning solid ground ELO bonuses.
| Metric | Antonio Carlos Junior | Ian Heinisch |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 399 | 182 |
| Activity ELO | 1 176 | 1 070 |
| ELO Change | -31 | +38 |
Ian Heinisch demonstrated standard activity with 182 days since his last fight, earning a small activity bonus for reasonable scheduling. As the winner, Ian Heinisch capitalized on this activity level, while Antonio Carlos Junior's 399-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Antonio Carlos Junior | Ian Heinisch |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 2 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 115 | 1 063 |
| ELO Change | -28 | +33 |
Ian Heinisch extended his 2-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Antonio Carlos Junior is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Antonio Carlos Junior | Ian Heinisch |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Middleweight | Middleweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 075 | 1 051 |
| ELO Change | -25 | +25 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.