December 29, 2016
Middleweight Bout
Click any category to learn how it's calculated.
Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Antonio Carlos Junior | Marvin Vettori |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 7 | 2 |
| Experience Gap | 5 | -5 |
| Experience ELO | 1 068 | 1 025 |
| ELO Change | +34 | -34 |
Antonio Carlos Junior's 5-fight experience advantage (7 vs 2 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Antonio Carlos Junior for the expected result. Had Marvin Vettori pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Antonio Carlos Junior | Marvin Vettori |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 041 | 999 |
| ELO Change | +21 | -21 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Antonio Carlos Junior | Marvin Vettori |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Unanimous | Decision - Unanimous |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 126 | 1 020 |
| ELO Change | +39 | -39 |
Antonio Carlos Junior earned a clear Decision - Unanimous, receiving full decision bonuses for controlling the fight across all rounds. Of course, a finish would have yielded even greater rewards.
| Metric | Antonio Carlos Junior | Marvin Vettori |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 28 | 29 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 75 | 70 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 44 | 99 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 050 | 1 010 |
| ELO Change | +21 | -21 |
Marvin Vettori controlled the striking through overwhelming volume (99 vs 44 total strikes). However, since Marvin Vettori lost the overall fight, his striking superiority couldn't be converted into ELO bonuses. Antonio Carlos Junior's positive striking ELO reflects the overall victory rather than striking dominance.
| Metric | Antonio Carlos Junior | Marvin Vettori |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 4 | 1 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 13 | 1 |
| Ground Control Time | 5:34 | 2:59 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 4 | 16 |
| Ground ELO | 1 273 | 1 040 |
| ELO Change | +27 | -27 |
Antonio Carlos Junior edged out Marvin Vettori on the ground with 4 vs 1 takedowns, 5:34 of control time, 4 ground strikes, earning solid ground ELO bonuses.
| Metric | Antonio Carlos Junior | Marvin Vettori |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 105 | 133 |
| Activity ELO | 1 087 | 1 000 |
| ELO Change | +50 | -20 |
Antonio Carlos Junior demonstrated solid activity levels with 105 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Antonio Carlos Junior capitalized on this activity level, while Marvin Vettori's 133-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Antonio Carlos Junior | Marvin Vettori |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 2 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 051 | 1 001 |
| ELO Change | +25 | -21 |
Antonio Carlos Junior extended his 2-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Marvin Vettori is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Antonio Carlos Junior | Marvin Vettori |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Middleweight | Middleweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 041 | 999 |
| ELO Change | +21 | -21 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.