December 19, 2014
Light Heavyweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Antonio Carlos Junior | Patrick Cummins |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 2 | 4 |
| Experience Gap | -2 | 2 |
| Experience ELO | 992 | 1 077 |
| ELO Change | -29 | +29 |
Patrick Cummins's 2-fight experience advantage (4 vs 2 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Patrick Cummins for the expected result. Had Antonio Carlos Junior pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Antonio Carlos Junior | Patrick Cummins |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 000 | 1 045 |
| ELO Change | -21 | +21 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Antonio Carlos Junior | Patrick Cummins |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Unanimous | Decision - Unanimous |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 008 | 1 142 |
| ELO Change | -34 | +34 |
Patrick Cummins earned a clear Decision - Unanimous, receiving full decision bonuses for controlling the fight across all rounds. Of course, a finish would have yielded even greater rewards.
| Metric | Antonio Carlos Junior | Patrick Cummins |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 12 | 62 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 29 | 94 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 14 | 122 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 969 | 1 175 |
| ELO Change | -52 | +52 |
Patrick Cummins dominated the striking exchanges with 122 vs 14 total strikes, 62 vs 12 significant strikes, 66.0% vs 41.4% accuracy. Patrick Cummins capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Antonio Carlos Junior | Patrick Cummins |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 1 | 4 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 2 | 8 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:37 | 11:14 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 2 | 58 |
| Ground ELO | 975 | 1 215 |
| ELO Change | -91 | +91 |
Patrick Cummins dominated Antonio Carlos Junior on the ground with 4 vs 1 takedowns, 11:14 of control time, 58 ground strikes, earning massive ground ELO bonuses.
| Metric | Antonio Carlos Junior | Patrick Cummins |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 204 | 148 |
| Activity ELO | 1 007 | 1 172 |
| ELO Change | -14 | +28 |
Patrick Cummins demonstrated solid activity levels with 148 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Patrick Cummins capitalized on this activity level, while Antonio Carlos Junior's 204-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Antonio Carlos Junior | Patrick Cummins |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 3 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 003 | 1 059 |
| ELO Change | -20 | +27 |
Patrick Cummins extended his 3-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Antonio Carlos Junior is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Antonio Carlos Junior | Patrick Cummins |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Light Heavyweight | Light Heavyweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 000 | 1 045 |
| ELO Change | -21 | +21 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.