March 15, 2013
Featherweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Antonio Carvalho | Darren Elkins |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 4 | 7 |
| Experience Gap | -3 | 3 |
| Experience ELO | 1 016 | 1 146 |
| ELO Change | -24 | +24 |
Darren Elkins's 3-fight experience advantage (7 vs 4 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Darren Elkins for the expected result. Had Antonio Carvalho pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Antonio Carvalho | Darren Elkins |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 005 | 1 097 |
| ELO Change | -18 | +18 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Antonio Carvalho | Darren Elkins |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | KO/TKO | KO/TKO |
| Last Round | 1 | 1 |
| Time of Finish | 3:06 | 3:06 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 073 | 1 284 |
| ELO Change | -28 | +59 |
Darren Elkins earned an early finish with a KO/TKO in round 1 at 3:06, gaining additional bonuses for the first-round stoppage.
| Metric | Antonio Carvalho | Darren Elkins |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 9 | 14 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 27 | 54 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 13 | 19 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 1 |
| Striking ELO | 1 036 | 1 263 |
| ELO Change | -74 | +74 |
Darren Elkins controlled the striking exchanges with 14 vs 9 significant strikes, including 1 devastating knockdown. Darren Elkins capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Antonio Carvalho | Darren Elkins |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 0 | 2 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:06 | 0:21 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 1 059 | 1 262 |
| ELO Change | -11 | +11 |
Minimal ground action with brief exchanges. The low volume resulted in modest ground adjustments.
| Metric | Antonio Carvalho | Darren Elkins |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 119 | 119 |
| Activity ELO | 1 040 | 1 176 |
| ELO Change | -16 | +41 |
Darren Elkins demonstrated solid activity levels with 119 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Darren Elkins capitalized on this activity level, while Antonio Carvalho's 119-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Antonio Carvalho | Darren Elkins |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 5 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 014 | 1 133 |
| ELO Change | -17 | +32 |
Darren Elkins continued building serious momentum with a 5-fight win streak, earning a strong bonus as streak bonuses escalate. Antonio Carvalho's now at 0.
| Metric | Antonio Carvalho | Darren Elkins |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Featherweight | Featherweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 005 | 1 097 |
| ELO Change | -18 | +18 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.

