December 19, 2014
Middleweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Antonio Dos Santos | Daniel Sarafian |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 1 | 5 |
| Experience Gap | -4 | 4 |
| Experience ELO | 965 | 996 |
| ELO Change | -35 | +35 |
Daniel Sarafian's 4-fight experience advantage (5 vs 1 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Daniel Sarafian for the expected result. Had Antonio Dos Santos pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Antonio Dos Santos | Daniel Sarafian |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 977 | 988 |
| ELO Change | -23 | +23 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Antonio Dos Santos | Daniel Sarafian |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | KO/TKO | KO/TKO |
| Last Round | 2 | 2 |
| Time of Finish | 1:01 | 1:01 |
| Win Type ELO | 959 | 1 095 |
| ELO Change | -41 | +83 |
Daniel Sarafian gained a finish with a KO/TKO in round 2, earning finishing bonuses.
| Metric | Antonio Dos Santos | Daniel Sarafian |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 37 | 24 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 73 | 46 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 39 | 24 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 1 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 941 | 1 017 |
| ELO Change | -59 | +59 |
Antonio Dos Santos controlled the striking through superior volume (39 vs 24 total strikes), significant strike advantage (37 vs 24), 1 knockdown. However, since Antonio Dos Santos lost the overall fight, his striking superiority couldn't be converted into ELO bonuses. Daniel Sarafian's positive striking ELO reflects the overall victory rather than striking dominance.
| Metric | Antonio Dos Santos | Daniel Sarafian |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 0 | 2 |
| Ground Control Time | 1:17 | 0:20 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 2 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 975 | 950 |
| ELO Change | -25 | +25 |
Daniel Sarafian did not secure a significant ground advantage against Antonio Dos Santos on the ground with 0:20 of control time, with almost no grappling bonus.
| Metric | Antonio Dos Santos | Daniel Sarafian |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | N/A | 190 |
| Activity ELO | 978 | 1 017 |
| ELO Change | -22 | +27 |
Daniel Sarafian demonstrated standard activity with 190 days since his last fight, earning a small activity bonus for reasonable scheduling. As the winner, Daniel Sarafian capitalized on this activity level, while Antonio Dos Santos's null-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Antonio Dos Santos | Daniel Sarafian |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 1 |
| Win Streak ELO | 977 | 993 |
| ELO Change | -23 | +25 |
Daniel Sarafian started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Antonio Dos Santos is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Antonio Dos Santos | Daniel Sarafian |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Middleweight | Middleweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 977 | 988 |
| ELO Change | -23 | +23 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.

