May 23, 2008
Light Heavyweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Antonio Mendes | Thiago Silva |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 1 | 4 |
| Experience Gap | -3 | 3 |
| Experience ELO | 980 | 1 152 |
| ELO Change | -20 | +20 |
Thiago Silva's 3-fight experience advantage (4 vs 1 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Thiago Silva for the expected result. Had Antonio Mendes pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Antonio Mendes | Thiago Silva |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 983 | 1 079 |
| ELO Change | -17 | +17 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Antonio Mendes | Thiago Silva |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | KO/TKO | KO/TKO |
| Last Round | 1 | 1 |
| Time of Finish | 2:24 | 2:24 |
| Win Type ELO | 987 | 1 319 |
| ELO Change | -13 | +30 |
Thiago Silva earned an early finish with a KO/TKO in round 1 at 2:24, gaining additional bonuses for the first-round stoppage.
| Metric | Antonio Mendes | Thiago Silva |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 5 | 19 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 12 | 23 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 8 | 20 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 1 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 977 | 1 337 |
| ELO Change | -23 | +23 |
Thiago Silva edged the striking exchanges with 19 vs 5 significant strikes, 82.6% vs 41.7% accuracy. Thiago Silva capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Antonio Mendes | Thiago Silva |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 1 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 2 | 0 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:22 | 1:27 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 15 |
| Ground ELO | 962 | 1 151 |
| ELO Change | -38 | +38 |
Thiago Silva controlled Antonio Mendes on the ground with 0 takedowns, 1:27 of control time, 15 ground strikes, earning substantial ground ELO bonuses.
| Metric | Antonio Mendes | Thiago Silva |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | N/A | 189 |
| Activity ELO | 987 | 1 152 |
| ELO Change | -13 | +16 |
Thiago Silva demonstrated standard activity with 189 days since his last fight, earning a small activity bonus for reasonable scheduling. As the winner, Thiago Silva capitalized on this activity level, while Antonio Mendes's null-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Antonio Mendes | Thiago Silva |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 4 |
| Win Streak ELO | 983 | 1 098 |
| ELO Change | -17 | +23 |
Thiago Silva extended his 4-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Antonio Mendes is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Antonio Mendes | Thiago Silva |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Light Heavyweight | Light Heavyweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 983 | 1 079 |
| ELO Change | -17 | +17 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.