Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira vs Cain Velasquez

February 19, 2010

Heavyweight Bout

Click any category to learn how it's calculated.

1091
(-23)
Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira
Winner: Cain Velasquez
KO/TKO
Round 1 • 2:20

No Predictions Available

Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025

C-ELO Evolution

Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira-23
Cain Velasquez+34
1253
(+34)
Cain Velasquez

C-ELO™ Evolution Comparison

Fight Stats & ELO Performance

Experience ELO
ELO Changes
Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira: -35Cain Velasquez: +35

Performance Statistics

MetricAntonio Rodrigo NogueiraCain Velasquez
Total UFC Fights56
Experience Gap-11
Experience ELO1 1541 189
ELO Change-35+35
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What Happened

Both fighters entered with identical experience levels (5 fights each). On this fight, close to zero experience-based adjustments were applied.

Title Fight ELO
ELO Changes
Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira: -19Cain Velasquez: +19

Performance Statistics

MetricAntonio Rodrigo NogueiraCain Velasquez
Title Fight ?NoNo
Title Fight ELO1 0561 119
ELO Change-19+19
💡

What Happened

This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.

Win Type ELO
ELO Changes
Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira: -28Cain Velasquez: +64

Performance Statistics

MetricAntonio Rodrigo NogueiraCain Velasquez
Fight OutcomeKO/TKOKO/TKO
Last Round11
Time of Finish2:202:20
Win Type ELO1 1761 384
ELO Change-28+64
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What Happened

Cain Velasquez earned an early finish with a KO/TKO in round 1 at 2:20, gaining additional bonuses for the first-round stoppage.

Striking ELO
ELO Changes
Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira: -28Cain Velasquez: +28

Performance Statistics

MetricAntonio Rodrigo NogueiraCain Velasquez
Significant Strikes Landed323
Significant Strikes Attempted2245
Total Strikes Landed323
Knockdowns Scored01
Striking ELO1 0431 481
ELO Change-28+28
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What Happened

Cain Velasquez controlled the striking exchanges with 23 vs 3 total strikes, 23 vs 3 significant strikes, 51.1% vs 13.6% accuracy, including 1 devastating knockdown. Cain Velasquez capitalized on this striking dominance.

Ground ELO
ELO Changes
Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira: -29Cain Velasquez: +29

Performance Statistics

MetricAntonio Rodrigo NogueiraCain Velasquez
Takedowns Landed00
Takedowns Attempted00
Ground Control Time0:000:03
Ground Strikes Landed05
Ground ELO1 1091 338
ELO Change-29+29
💡

What Happened

Cain Velasquez landed 1 knockdown followed by 5 ground strikes. Few ground strikes after a knockdown do not qualify for major ground ELO bonus.

Activity ELO
ELO Changes
Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira: -16Cain Velasquez: +32

Performance Statistics

MetricAntonio Rodrigo NogueiraCain Velasquez
Days Since Last Fight176120
Activity ELO1 0801 215
ELO Change-16+32
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What Happened

Cain Velasquez demonstrated solid activity levels with 120 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Cain Velasquez capitalized on this activity level, while Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira's 176-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.

Win Streak ELO
ELO Changes
Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira: -17Cain Velasquez: +42

Performance Statistics

MetricAntonio Rodrigo NogueiraCain Velasquez
Win Streak06
Win Streak ELO1 0581 176
ELO Change-17+42
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What Happened

Cain Velasquez continued building serious momentum with a 6-fight win streak, earning a strong bonus as streak bonuses escalate. Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira's now at 0.

Basic/Category ELO
ELO Changes
Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira: -19Cain Velasquez: +19

Performance Statistics

MetricAntonio Rodrigo NogueiraCain Velasquez
Weight ClassHeavyweightHeavyweight
Double Championship FightNoNo
Basic/Category ELO1 0481 119
ELO Change-19+19
💡

What Happened

This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.