February 19, 2010
Heavyweight Bout
Click any category to learn how it's calculated.
Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira | Cain Velasquez |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 5 | 6 |
| Experience Gap | -1 | 1 |
| Experience ELO | 1 154 | 1 189 |
| ELO Change | -35 | +35 |
Both fighters entered with identical experience levels (5 fights each). On this fight, close to zero experience-based adjustments were applied.
| Metric | Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira | Cain Velasquez |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 056 | 1 119 |
| ELO Change | -19 | +19 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira | Cain Velasquez |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | KO/TKO | KO/TKO |
| Last Round | 1 | 1 |
| Time of Finish | 2:20 | 2:20 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 176 | 1 384 |
| ELO Change | -28 | +64 |
Cain Velasquez earned an early finish with a KO/TKO in round 1 at 2:20, gaining additional bonuses for the first-round stoppage.
| Metric | Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira | Cain Velasquez |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 3 | 23 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 22 | 45 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 3 | 23 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 1 |
| Striking ELO | 1 043 | 1 481 |
| ELO Change | -28 | +28 |
Cain Velasquez controlled the striking exchanges with 23 vs 3 total strikes, 23 vs 3 significant strikes, 51.1% vs 13.6% accuracy, including 1 devastating knockdown. Cain Velasquez capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira | Cain Velasquez |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 0 | 0 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:00 | 0:03 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 5 |
| Ground ELO | 1 109 | 1 338 |
| ELO Change | -29 | +29 |
Cain Velasquez landed 1 knockdown followed by 5 ground strikes. Few ground strikes after a knockdown do not qualify for major ground ELO bonus.
| Metric | Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira | Cain Velasquez |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 176 | 120 |
| Activity ELO | 1 080 | 1 215 |
| ELO Change | -16 | +32 |
Cain Velasquez demonstrated solid activity levels with 120 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Cain Velasquez capitalized on this activity level, while Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira's 176-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira | Cain Velasquez |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 6 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 058 | 1 176 |
| ELO Change | -17 | +42 |
Cain Velasquez continued building serious momentum with a 6-fight win streak, earning a strong bonus as streak bonuses escalate. Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira's now at 0.
| Metric | Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira | Cain Velasquez |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Heavyweight | Heavyweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 048 | 1 119 |
| ELO Change | -19 | +19 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.

