June 7, 2013
Heavyweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira | Fabricio Werdum |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 9 | 7 |
| Experience Gap | 2 | -2 |
| Experience ELO | 1 127 | 1 121 |
| ELO Change | -40 | +45 |
Fabricio Werdum overcame a 2-fight experience disadvantage (7 vs 9 fights), earning a reward for beating the more seasoned veteran Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira.
| Metric | Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira | Fabricio Werdum |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 055 | 1 082 |
| ELO Change | -22 | +22 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira | Fabricio Werdum |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Submission | Submission |
| Last Round | 2 | 2 |
| Time of Finish | 2:41 | 2:41 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 252 | 1 386 |
| ELO Change | -37 | +58 |
Fabricio Werdum earned a finish with a Submission in round 2 at 2:41, earning finishing bonuses for the submission. Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira was submitted.
| Metric | Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira | Fabricio Werdum |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 14 | 32 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 40 | 37 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 46 | 54 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 180 | 1 321 |
| ELO Change | -26 | +26 |
Fabricio Werdum controlled the striking exchanges with 32 vs 14 significant strikes, 86.5% vs 35.0% accuracy. Fabricio Werdum capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira | Fabricio Werdum |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 1 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 1 | 2 |
| Ground Control Time | 2:03 | 2:50 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 6 |
| Ground ELO | 1 055 | 1 283 |
| ELO Change | -137 | +137 |
Fabricio Werdum dominated Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira on the ground with 1 vs 0 takedowns, 2:50 of control time, 6 ground strikes, earning massive ground ELO bonuses. The submission finish significantly amplified the grappling rewards.
| Metric | Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira | Fabricio Werdum |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 238 | 350 |
| Activity ELO | 1 084 | 1 133 |
| ELO Change | -21 | +21 |
Fabricio Werdum demonstrated standard activity with 350 days since his last fight, earning no activity bonus. As the winner, Fabricio Werdum capitalized on this activity level, while Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira's 238-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira | Fabricio Werdum |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 3 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 062 | 1 103 |
| ELO Change | -22 | +28 |
Fabricio Werdum extended his 3-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira | Fabricio Werdum |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Heavyweight | Heavyweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 047 | 1 079 |
| ELO Change | -22 | +22 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.