December 9, 2011
Heavyweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira | Frank Mir |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 7 | 19 |
| Experience Gap | -12 | 12 |
| Experience ELO | 1 151 | 1 206 |
| ELO Change | -32 | +32 |
Frank Mir's 12-fight experience advantage (19 vs 7 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Frank Mir for the expected result. Had Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira | Frank Mir |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 061 | 1 169 |
| ELO Change | -16 | +16 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira | Frank Mir |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Submission | Submission |
| Last Round | 1 | 1 |
| Time of Finish | 3:38 | 3:38 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 262 | 1 448 |
| ELO Change | -29 | +48 |
Frank Mir earned an early finish with a Submission in round 1 at 3:38, gaining additional bonuses for the first-round submission.
| Metric | Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira | Frank Mir |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 21 | 6 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 27 | 8 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 42 | 7 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 176 | 1 265 |
| ELO Change | -18 | +18 |
Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira controlled the striking through overwhelming volume (42 vs 7 total strikes), significant strike advantage (21 vs 6). However, since Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira lost the overall fight, his striking superiority couldn't be converted into ELO bonuses. Frank Mir's positive striking ELO reflects the overall victory rather than striking dominance.
| Metric | Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira | Frank Mir |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 1 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 1 | 2 |
| Ground Control Time | 1:50 | 1:13 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 3 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 1 135 | 1 298 |
| ELO Change | -42 | +42 |
Frank Mir controlled Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira on the ground with 1 vs 0 takedowns, 1:13 of control time, earning substantial ground ELO bonuses. The submission finish significantly amplified the grappling rewards.
| Metric | Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira | Frank Mir |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 106 | 197 |
| Activity ELO | 1 090 | 1 236 |
| ELO Change | -14 | +18 |
Frank Mir demonstrated standard activity with 197 days since his last fight, earning a small activity bonus for reasonable scheduling. As the winner, Frank Mir capitalized on this activity level, while Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira's 106-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira | Frank Mir |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 3 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 066 | 1 171 |
| ELO Change | -17 | +22 |
Frank Mir extended his 3-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira | Frank Mir |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Heavyweight | Heavyweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 052 | 1 137 |
| ELO Change | -18 | +18 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.
Why It Matters:
Extra bonuses are awarded for title victories and undefeated streaks. These bonuses are only calculated for certain fighters with notable performances. Only UFC champions and undefeated fighters (in the UFC) can receive these bonuses.