July 6, 2007
Heavyweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira | Heath Herring |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 1 | 3 |
| Experience Gap | -2 | 2 |
| Experience ELO | 1 067 | 934 |
| ELO Change | +67 | -67 |
Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira overcame a 2-fight experience disadvantage (1 vs 3 fights), earning a reward for beating the more seasoned veteran Heath Herring.
| Metric | Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira | Heath Herring |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 021 | 980 |
| ELO Change | +21 | -21 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira | Heath Herring |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Unanimous | Decision - Unanimous |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 043 | 968 |
| ELO Change | +43 | -43 |
Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira earned a clear Decision - Unanimous, receiving full decision bonuses for controlling the fight across all rounds. Of course, a finish would have yielded even greater rewards.
| Metric | Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira | Heath Herring |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 55 | 31 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 120 | 127 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 79 | 47 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 1 |
| Striking ELO | 1 044 | 1 031 |
| ELO Change | +44 | -44 |
Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira controlled the striking exchanges with 79 vs 47 total strikes, 55 vs 31 significant strikes, 45.8% vs 24.4% accuracy. Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira | Heath Herring |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 4 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 5 | 0 |
| Ground Control Time | 3:41 | 1:42 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 2 | 5 |
| Ground ELO | 1 054 | 968 |
| ELO Change | +54 | -54 |
Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira edged out Heath Herring on the ground with 4 vs 0 takedowns, 3:41 of control time, 2 ground strikes, earning solid ground ELO bonuses.
| Metric | Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira | Heath Herring |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | N/A | 91 |
| Activity ELO | 1 024 | 1 018 |
| ELO Change | +24 | -24 |
Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira demonstrated incredible warrior mentality with a tournament-style turnaround with within null days since his last fight, earning one of the highest possible activity bonuses for the lightning-quick return. As the winner, Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira capitalized on this activity level, while Heath Herring's 91-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira | Heath Herring |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 1 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 023 | 983 |
| ELO Change | +23 | -21 |
Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Heath Herring is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira | Heath Herring |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Heavyweight | Heavyweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 021 | 980 |
| ELO Change | +21 | -21 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.