August 28, 2009
Heavyweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira | Randy Couture |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 4 | 20 |
| Experience Gap | -16 | 16 |
| Experience ELO | 1 189 | 1 149 |
| ELO Change | +80 | -39 |
Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira overcame a 16-fight experience disadvantage (4 vs 20 fights), earning a reward for beating the more seasoned veteran Randy Couture.
| Metric | Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira | Randy Couture |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 075 | 1 299 |
| ELO Change | +36 | -36 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira | Randy Couture |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Unanimous | Decision - Unanimous |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 204 | 1 338 |
| ELO Change | +69 | -69 |
Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira earned a clear Decision - Unanimous, receiving full decision bonuses for controlling the fight across all rounds. Of course, a finish would have yielded even greater rewards.
| Metric | Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira | Randy Couture |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 27 | 42 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 96 | 103 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 133 | 65 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 2 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 071 | 1 135 |
| ELO Change | +171 | -171 |
Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira dominated the striking exchanges with 133 vs 65 total strikes, 27 vs 42 significant strikes, 28.1% vs 40.8% accuracy, including 2 devastating knockdowns. Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira | Randy Couture |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 0 | 1 |
| Ground Control Time | 5:35 | 3:27 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 1 | 7 |
| Ground ELO | 1 138 | 1 369 |
| ELO Change | +44 | -44 |
Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira landed 2 knockdowns followed by 1 ground strike. Few ground strikes after a knockdown do not qualify for major ground ELO bonus.
| Metric | Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira | Randy Couture |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 245 | 287 |
| Activity ELO | 1 096 | 1 300 |
| ELO Change | +44 | -35 |
Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira demonstrated standard activity with 245 days since his last fight, earning a small activity bonus for reasonable scheduling. As the winner, Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira capitalized on this activity level, while Randy Couture's 287-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira | Randy Couture |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 1 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 075 | 1 169 |
| ELO Change | +33 | -30 |
Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Randy Couture is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira | Randy Couture |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Heavyweight | Heavyweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 067 | 1 303 |
| ELO Change | +36 | -36 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.
Why It Matters:
Extra bonuses are awarded for title victories and undefeated streaks. These bonuses are only calculated for certain fighters with notable performances. Only UFC champions and undefeated fighters (in the UFC) can receive these bonuses.