July 31, 2015
Heavyweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira | Stefan Struve |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 11 | 15 |
| Experience Gap | -4 | 4 |
| Experience ELO | 1 061 | 1 131 |
| ELO Change | -31 | +31 |
Stefan Struve's 4-fight experience advantage (15 vs 11 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Stefan Struve for the expected result. Had Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira | Stefan Struve |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 014 | 1 083 |
| ELO Change | -19 | +19 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira | Stefan Struve |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Unanimous | Decision - Unanimous |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 181 | 1 309 |
| ELO Change | -35 | +35 |
Stefan Struve earned a clear Decision - Unanimous, receiving full decision bonuses for controlling the fight across all rounds. Of course, a finish would have yielded even greater rewards.
| Metric | Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira | Stefan Struve |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 59 | 93 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 113 | 156 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 84 | 94 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 016 | 1 056 |
| ELO Change | -30 | +30 |
Stefan Struve controlled the striking exchanges with 93 vs 59 significant strikes. Stefan Struve capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira | Stefan Struve |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 1 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 14 | 0 |
| Ground Control Time | 5:22 | 0:38 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 981 | 1 079 |
| ELO Change | -17 | +17 |
Stefan Struve did not secure a significant ground advantage against Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira on the ground with 0 takedowns, 0:38 of control time, with almost no grappling bonus.
| Metric | Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira | Stefan Struve |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 477 | 231 |
| Activity ELO | 1 054 | 1 230 |
| ELO Change | -13 | +16 |
Stefan Struve demonstrated standard activity with 231 days since his last fight, earning a small activity bonus for reasonable scheduling. As the winner, Stefan Struve capitalized on this activity level, while Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira's 477-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira | Stefan Struve |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 1 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 023 | 1 111 |
| ELO Change | -18 | +20 |
Stefan Struve started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira | Stefan Struve |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Heavyweight | Heavyweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 006 | 1 082 |
| ELO Change | -19 | +19 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.