September 23, 2016
Heavyweight Bout
Click any category to learn how it's calculated.
Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Antonio Silva | Roy Nelson |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 11 | 18 |
| Experience Gap | -7 | 7 |
| Experience ELO | 974 | 1 080 |
| ELO Change | -27 | +27 |
Roy Nelson's 7-fight experience advantage (18 vs 11 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Roy Nelson for the expected result. Had Antonio Silva pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Antonio Silva | Roy Nelson |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 966 | 1 028 |
| ELO Change | -20 | +20 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Antonio Silva | Roy Nelson |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | KO/TKO | KO/TKO |
| Last Round | 2 | 2 |
| Time of Finish | 4:10 | 4:10 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 162 | 1 349 |
| ELO Change | -31 | +64 |
Roy Nelson gained a finish with a KO/TKO in round 2, earning finishing bonuses.
| Metric | Antonio Silva | Roy Nelson |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 27 | 36 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 61 | 66 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 46 | 38 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 1 |
| Striking ELO | 817 | 1 144 |
| ELO Change | -31 | +31 |
Roy Nelson controlled the striking exchanges with 36 vs 27 significant strikes, 54.5% vs 44.3% accuracy, including 1 devastating knockdown. Roy Nelson capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Antonio Silva | Roy Nelson |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 2 | 1 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:19 | 1:32 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 5 |
| Ground ELO | 896 | 1 070 |
| ELO Change | -41 | +41 |
Roy Nelson landed 1 knockdown followed by 5 ground strikes. Few ground strikes after a knockdown do not qualify for major ground ELO bonus.
| Metric | Antonio Silva | Roy Nelson |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 139 | 79 |
| Activity ELO | 1 042 | 1 192 |
| ELO Change | -16 | +48 |
Roy Nelson demonstrated excellent fighting frequency with 79 days since his last fight, earning a solid activity bonus for maintaining rhythm. As the winner, Roy Nelson capitalized on this activity level, while Antonio Silva's 139-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Antonio Silva | Roy Nelson |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 1 |
| Win Streak ELO | 980 | 1 052 |
| ELO Change | -19 | +21 |
Roy Nelson started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Antonio Silva is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Antonio Silva | Roy Nelson |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Heavyweight | Heavyweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 957 | 1 020 |
| ELO Change | -19 | +19 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.

