Antonio Silva vs Roy Nelson

September 23, 2016

Heavyweight Bout

Click any category to learn how it's calculated.

974
(-26)
Antonio Silva
Winner: Roy Nelson
KO/TKO
Round 2 • 4:10

No Predictions Available

Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025

C-ELO Evolution

Antonio Silva-26
Roy Nelson+34
1117
(+34)
Roy Nelson

C-ELO™ Evolution Comparison

Fight Stats & ELO Performance

Experience ELO
ELO Changes
Antonio Silva: -27Roy Nelson: +27

Performance Statistics

MetricAntonio SilvaRoy Nelson
Total UFC Fights1118
Experience Gap-77
Experience ELO9741 080
ELO Change-27+27
💡

What Happened

Roy Nelson's 7-fight experience advantage (18 vs 11 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Roy Nelson for the expected result. Had Antonio Silva pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.

Title Fight ELO
ELO Changes
Antonio Silva: -20Roy Nelson: +20

Performance Statistics

MetricAntonio SilvaRoy Nelson
Title Fight ?NoNo
Title Fight ELO9661 028
ELO Change-20+20
💡

What Happened

This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.

Win Type ELO
ELO Changes
Antonio Silva: -31Roy Nelson: +64

Performance Statistics

MetricAntonio SilvaRoy Nelson
Fight OutcomeKO/TKOKO/TKO
Last Round22
Time of Finish4:104:10
Win Type ELO1 1621 349
ELO Change-31+64
💡

What Happened

Roy Nelson gained a finish with a KO/TKO in round 2, earning finishing bonuses.

Striking ELO
ELO Changes
Antonio Silva: -31Roy Nelson: +31

Performance Statistics

MetricAntonio SilvaRoy Nelson
Significant Strikes Landed2736
Significant Strikes Attempted6166
Total Strikes Landed4638
Knockdowns Scored01
Striking ELO8171 144
ELO Change-31+31
💡

What Happened

Roy Nelson controlled the striking exchanges with 36 vs 27 significant strikes, 54.5% vs 44.3% accuracy, including 1 devastating knockdown. Roy Nelson capitalized on this striking dominance.

Ground ELO
ELO Changes
Antonio Silva: -41Roy Nelson: +41

Performance Statistics

MetricAntonio SilvaRoy Nelson
Takedowns Landed00
Takedowns Attempted21
Ground Control Time0:191:32
Ground Strikes Landed05
Ground ELO8961 070
ELO Change-41+41
💡

What Happened

Roy Nelson landed 1 knockdown followed by 5 ground strikes. Few ground strikes after a knockdown do not qualify for major ground ELO bonus.

Activity ELO
ELO Changes
Antonio Silva: -16Roy Nelson: +48

Performance Statistics

MetricAntonio SilvaRoy Nelson
Days Since Last Fight13979
Activity ELO1 0421 192
ELO Change-16+48
💡

What Happened

Roy Nelson demonstrated excellent fighting frequency with 79 days since his last fight, earning a solid activity bonus for maintaining rhythm. As the winner, Roy Nelson capitalized on this activity level, while Antonio Silva's 139-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.

Win Streak ELO
ELO Changes
Antonio Silva: -19Roy Nelson: +21

Performance Statistics

MetricAntonio SilvaRoy Nelson
Win Streak01
Win Streak ELO9801 052
ELO Change-19+21
💡

What Happened

Roy Nelson started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Antonio Silva is back at 0 with this loss.

Basic/Category ELO
ELO Changes
Antonio Silva: -19Roy Nelson: +19

Performance Statistics

MetricAntonio SilvaRoy Nelson
Weight ClassHeavyweightHeavyweight
Double Championship FightNoNo
Basic/Category ELO9571 020
ELO Change-19+19
💡

What Happened

This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.