October 15, 2021
Women's Strawweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Ariane Carnelossi | Istela Nunes |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 3 | 1 |
| Experience Gap | 2 | -2 |
| Experience ELO | 1 030 | 968 |
| ELO Change | +32 | -32 |
Ariane Carnelossi's 2-fight experience advantage (3 vs 1 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Ariane Carnelossi for the expected result. Had Istela Nunes pulled off the upset, her experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Ariane Carnelossi | Istela Nunes |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 019 | 979 |
| ELO Change | +21 | -21 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Ariane Carnelossi | Istela Nunes |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Submission | Submission |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 2:57 | 2:57 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 116 | 966 |
| ELO Change | +52 | -34 |
Ariane Carnelossi earned a finish with a Submission in round 3 at 2:57, earning finishing bonuses for the submission. Istela Nunes was submitted.
| Metric | Ariane Carnelossi | Istela Nunes |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 36 | 62 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 108 | 119 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 76 | 98 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 062 | 982 |
| ELO Change | +18 | -18 |
Istela Nunes controlled the striking through superior volume (98 vs 76 total strikes), significant strike advantage (62 vs 36), superior accuracy (52.1% vs 33.3%). However, since Istela Nunes lost the overall fight, her striking superiority couldn't be converted into ELO bonuses. Ariane Carnelossi's positive striking ELO reflects the overall victory rather than striking dominance.
| Metric | Ariane Carnelossi | Istela Nunes |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 5 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 7 | 0 |
| Ground Control Time | 7:04 | 0:00 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 1 134 | 865 |
| ELO Change | +135 | -135 |
Ariane Carnelossi dominated Istela Nunes on the ground with 5 vs 0 takedowns, 7:04 of control time, earning massive ground ELO bonuses. The submission finish significantly amplified the grappling rewards.
| Metric | Ariane Carnelossi | Istela Nunes |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 175 | N/A |
| Activity ELO | 1 039 | 979 |
| ELO Change | +36 | -21 |
Ariane Carnelossi demonstrated solid activity levels with 175 days since her last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Ariane Carnelossi capitalized on this activity level, while Istela Nunes's null-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Ariane Carnelossi | Istela Nunes |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 2 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 027 | 979 |
| ELO Change | +25 | -21 |
Ariane Carnelossi extended her 2-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Istela Nunes is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Ariane Carnelossi | Istela Nunes |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Women's Strawweight | Women's Strawweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 019 | 979 |
| ELO Change | +21 | -21 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.

