Ariane Carnelossi vs Istela Nunes

October 15, 2021

Women's Strawweight Bout

Click any category to learn how it's calculated.

1056
(+43)
Ariane Carnelossi
Winner: Ariane Carnelossi
Submission
Round 3 • 2:57

No Predictions Available

Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025

C-ELO Evolution

Ariane Carnelossi+43
Istela Nunes-38
962
(-38)
Istela Nunes

C-ELO™ Evolution Comparison

Fight Stats & ELO Performance

Experience ELO
ELO Changes
Ariane Carnelossi: +32Istela Nunes: -32

Performance Statistics

MetricAriane CarnelossiIstela Nunes
Total UFC Fights31
Experience Gap2-2
Experience ELO1 030968
ELO Change+32-32
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What Happened

Ariane Carnelossi's 2-fight experience advantage (3 vs 1 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Ariane Carnelossi for the expected result. Had Istela Nunes pulled off the upset, her experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.

Title Fight ELO
ELO Changes
Ariane Carnelossi: +21Istela Nunes: -21

Performance Statistics

MetricAriane CarnelossiIstela Nunes
Title Fight ?NoNo
Title Fight ELO1 019979
ELO Change+21-21
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What Happened

This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.

Win Type ELO
ELO Changes
Ariane Carnelossi: +52Istela Nunes: -34

Performance Statistics

MetricAriane CarnelossiIstela Nunes
Fight OutcomeSubmissionSubmission
Last Round33
Time of Finish2:572:57
Win Type ELO1 116966
ELO Change+52-34
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What Happened

Ariane Carnelossi earned a finish with a Submission in round 3 at 2:57, earning finishing bonuses for the submission. Istela Nunes was submitted.

Striking ELO
ELO Changes
Ariane Carnelossi: +18Istela Nunes: -18

Performance Statistics

MetricAriane CarnelossiIstela Nunes
Significant Strikes Landed3662
Significant Strikes Attempted108119
Total Strikes Landed7698
Knockdowns Scored00
Striking ELO1 062982
ELO Change+18-18
💡

What Happened

Istela Nunes controlled the striking through superior volume (98 vs 76 total strikes), significant strike advantage (62 vs 36), superior accuracy (52.1% vs 33.3%). However, since Istela Nunes lost the overall fight, her striking superiority couldn't be converted into ELO bonuses. Ariane Carnelossi's positive striking ELO reflects the overall victory rather than striking dominance.

Ground ELO
ELO Changes
Ariane Carnelossi: +135Istela Nunes: -135

Performance Statistics

MetricAriane CarnelossiIstela Nunes
Takedowns Landed50
Takedowns Attempted70
Ground Control Time7:040:00
Ground Strikes Landed00
Ground ELO1 134865
ELO Change+135-135
💡

What Happened

Ariane Carnelossi dominated Istela Nunes on the ground with 5 vs 0 takedowns, 7:04 of control time, earning massive ground ELO bonuses. The submission finish significantly amplified the grappling rewards.

Activity ELO
ELO Changes
Ariane Carnelossi: +36Istela Nunes: -21

Performance Statistics

MetricAriane CarnelossiIstela Nunes
Days Since Last Fight175N/A
Activity ELO1 039979
ELO Change+36-21
💡

What Happened

Ariane Carnelossi demonstrated solid activity levels with 175 days since her last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Ariane Carnelossi capitalized on this activity level, while Istela Nunes's null-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.

Win Streak ELO
ELO Changes
Ariane Carnelossi: +25Istela Nunes: -21

Performance Statistics

MetricAriane CarnelossiIstela Nunes
Win Streak20
Win Streak ELO1 027979
ELO Change+25-21
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What Happened

Ariane Carnelossi extended her 2-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Istela Nunes is back at 0 with this loss.

Basic/Category ELO
ELO Changes
Ariane Carnelossi: +21Istela Nunes: -21

Performance Statistics

MetricAriane CarnelossiIstela Nunes
Weight ClassWomen's StrawweightWomen's Strawweight
Double Championship FightNoNo
Basic/Category ELO1 019979
ELO Change+21-21
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What Happened

This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.