Ariane da Silva vs Casey O'Neill

December 15, 2023

Women's Flyweight Bout

Click any category to learn how it's calculated.

1099
(+60)
Ariane da Silva
Winner: Ariane da Silva
Submission
Round 2 • 1:18

No Predictions Available

Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025

C-ELO Evolution

Ariane da Silva+60
Casey O'Neill-53
1061
(-53)
Casey O'Neill

C-ELO™ Evolution Comparison

Fight Stats & ELO Performance

Experience ELO
ELO Changes
Ariane da Silva: +36Casey O'Neill: -36

Performance Statistics

MetricAriane da SilvaCasey O'Neill
Total UFC Fights116
Experience Gap5-5
Experience ELO1 1011 078
ELO Change+36-36
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What Happened

Ariane da Silva's 5-fight experience advantage (11 vs 6 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Ariane da Silva for the expected result. Had Casey O'Neill pulled off the upset, her experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.

Title Fight ELO
ELO Changes
Ariane da Silva: +23Casey O'Neill: -23

Performance Statistics

MetricAriane da SilvaCasey O'Neill
Title Fight ?NoNo
Title Fight ELO1 0411 026
ELO Change+23-23
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What Happened

This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.

Win Type ELO
ELO Changes
Ariane da Silva: +84Casey O'Neill: -54

Performance Statistics

MetricAriane da SilvaCasey O'Neill
Fight OutcomeSubmissionSubmission
Last Round22
Time of Finish1:181:18
Win Type ELO1 1541 117
ELO Change+84-54
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What Happened

Ariane da Silva earned a finish with a Submission in round 2 at 1:18, earning finishing bonuses for the submission. Casey O'Neill was submitted.

Striking ELO
ELO Changes
Ariane da Silva: +63Casey O'Neill: -63

Performance Statistics

MetricAriane da SilvaCasey O'Neill
Significant Strikes Landed6431
Significant Strikes Attempted12774
Total Strikes Landed8632
Knockdowns Scored00
Striking ELO1 0561 082
ELO Change+63-63
💡

What Happened

Ariane da Silva dominated the striking exchanges with 86 vs 32 total strikes, 64 vs 31 significant strikes, 50.4% vs 41.9% accuracy. Ariane da Silva capitalized on this striking dominance.

Ground ELO
ELO Changes
Ariane da Silva: +179Casey O'Neill: -179

Performance Statistics

MetricAriane da SilvaCasey O'Neill
Takedowns Landed10
Takedowns Attempted12
Ground Control Time0:580:20
Ground Strikes Landed180
Ground ELO1 1841 012
ELO Change+179-179
💡

What Happened

Ariane da Silva dominated Casey O'Neill on the ground with 1 vs 0 takedowns, 0:58 of control time, 18 ground strikes, earning massive ground ELO bonuses. The submission finish significantly amplified the grappling rewards.

Activity ELO
ELO Changes
Ariane da Silva: +39Casey O'Neill: -22

Performance Statistics

MetricAriane da SilvaCasey O'Neill
Days Since Last Fight169273
Activity ELO1 1481 104
ELO Change+39-22
💡

What Happened

Ariane da Silva demonstrated solid activity levels with 169 days since her last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Ariane da Silva capitalized on this activity level, while Casey O'Neill's 273-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.

Win Streak ELO
ELO Changes
Ariane da Silva: +30Casey O'Neill: -23

Performance Statistics

MetricAriane da SilvaCasey O'Neill
Win Streak30
Win Streak ELO1 0651 044
ELO Change+30-23
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What Happened

Ariane da Silva extended her 3-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Casey O'Neill is back at 0 with this loss.

Basic/Category ELO
ELO Changes
Ariane da Silva: +23Casey O'Neill: -23

Performance Statistics

MetricAriane da SilvaCasey O'Neill
Weight ClassWomen's FlyweightWomen's Flyweight
Double Championship FightNoNo
Basic/Category ELO1 0411 026
ELO Change+23-23
💡

What Happened

This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.