December 15, 2023
Women's Flyweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Ariane da Silva | Casey O'Neill |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 11 | 6 |
| Experience Gap | 5 | -5 |
| Experience ELO | 1 101 | 1 078 |
| ELO Change | +36 | -36 |
Ariane da Silva's 5-fight experience advantage (11 vs 6 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Ariane da Silva for the expected result. Had Casey O'Neill pulled off the upset, her experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Ariane da Silva | Casey O'Neill |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 041 | 1 026 |
| ELO Change | +23 | -23 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Ariane da Silva | Casey O'Neill |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Submission | Submission |
| Last Round | 2 | 2 |
| Time of Finish | 1:18 | 1:18 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 154 | 1 117 |
| ELO Change | +84 | -54 |
Ariane da Silva earned a finish with a Submission in round 2 at 1:18, earning finishing bonuses for the submission. Casey O'Neill was submitted.
| Metric | Ariane da Silva | Casey O'Neill |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 64 | 31 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 127 | 74 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 86 | 32 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 056 | 1 082 |
| ELO Change | +63 | -63 |
Ariane da Silva dominated the striking exchanges with 86 vs 32 total strikes, 64 vs 31 significant strikes, 50.4% vs 41.9% accuracy. Ariane da Silva capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Ariane da Silva | Casey O'Neill |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 1 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 1 | 2 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:58 | 0:20 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 18 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 1 184 | 1 012 |
| ELO Change | +179 | -179 |
Ariane da Silva dominated Casey O'Neill on the ground with 1 vs 0 takedowns, 0:58 of control time, 18 ground strikes, earning massive ground ELO bonuses. The submission finish significantly amplified the grappling rewards.
| Metric | Ariane da Silva | Casey O'Neill |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 169 | 273 |
| Activity ELO | 1 148 | 1 104 |
| ELO Change | +39 | -22 |
Ariane da Silva demonstrated solid activity levels with 169 days since her last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Ariane da Silva capitalized on this activity level, while Casey O'Neill's 273-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Ariane da Silva | Casey O'Neill |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 3 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 065 | 1 044 |
| ELO Change | +30 | -23 |
Ariane da Silva extended her 3-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Casey O'Neill is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Ariane da Silva | Casey O'Neill |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Women's Flyweight | Women's Flyweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 041 | 1 026 |
| ELO Change | +23 | -23 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.

