November 15, 2019
Women's Flyweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Ariane da Silva | Isabela de Padua |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 3 | 1 |
| Experience Gap | 2 | -2 |
| Experience ELO | 977 | 963 |
| ELO Change | +37 | -37 |
Ariane da Silva's 2-fight experience advantage (3 vs 1 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Ariane da Silva for the expected result. Had Isabela de Padua pulled off the upset, her experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Ariane da Silva | Isabela de Padua |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 983 | 977 |
| ELO Change | +23 | -23 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Ariane da Silva | Isabela de Padua |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Unanimous | Decision - Unanimous |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 982 | 950 |
| ELO Change | +50 | -50 |
Ariane da Silva earned a clear Decision - Unanimous, receiving full decision bonuses for controlling the fight across all rounds. Of course, a finish would have yielded even greater rewards.
| Metric | Ariane da Silva | Isabela de Padua |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 31 | 15 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 63 | 42 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 175 | 90 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 1 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 029 | 917 |
| ELO Change | +83 | -83 |
Ariane da Silva dominated the striking exchanges with 175 vs 90 total strikes, 31 vs 15 significant strikes, 49.2% vs 35.7% accuracy, including 1 devastating knockdown. Ariane da Silva capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Ariane da Silva | Isabela de Padua |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 2 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 0 | 3 |
| Ground Control Time | 8:48 | 4:39 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 13 | 9 |
| Ground ELO | 913 | 952 |
| ELO Change | +48 | -48 |
Ariane da Silva landed 1 knockdown followed by 13 ground strikes. Few ground strikes after a knockdown do not qualify for major ground ELO bonus.
| Metric | Ariane da Silva | Isabela de Padua |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 148 | N/A |
| Activity ELO | 1 009 | 977 |
| ELO Change | +47 | -23 |
Ariane da Silva demonstrated solid activity levels with 148 days since her last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Ariane da Silva capitalized on this activity level, while Isabela de Padua's null-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Ariane da Silva | Isabela de Padua |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 1 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 987 | 977 |
| ELO Change | +26 | -23 |
Ariane da Silva started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Isabela de Padua is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Ariane da Silva | Isabela de Padua |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Women's Flyweight | Women's Flyweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 983 | 977 |
| ELO Change | +23 | -23 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.

