July 17, 2020
Women's Flyweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Ariane da Silva | Luana Carolina |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 4 | 2 |
| Experience Gap | 2 | -2 |
| Experience ELO | 1 016 | 1 020 |
| ELO Change | +39 | -39 |
Ariane da Silva's 2-fight experience advantage (4 vs 2 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Ariane da Silva for the expected result. Had Luana Carolina pulled off the upset, her experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Ariane da Silva | Luana Carolina |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 006 | 996 |
| ELO Change | +23 | -23 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Ariane da Silva | Luana Carolina |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Submission | Submission |
| Last Round | 1 | 1 |
| Time of Finish | 1:28 | 1:28 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 074 | 986 |
| ELO Change | +92 | -48 |
Ariane da Silva earned an early finish with a Submission in round 1 at 1:28, gaining additional bonuses for the first-round submission.
| Metric | Ariane da Silva | Luana Carolina |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 3 | 2 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 4 | 4 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 11 | 2 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 081 | 993 |
| ELO Change | +52 | -52 |
Ariane da Silva slightly outperformed the striking exchanges with 75.0% vs 50.0% accuracy. Ariane da Silva capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Ariane da Silva | Luana Carolina |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 0 | 0 |
| Ground Control Time | 1:07 | 0:00 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 975 | 969 |
| ELO Change | +62 | -62 |
Ariane da Silva edged out Luana Carolina on the ground with 1:07 of control time, earning solid ground ELO bonuses. The submission finish significantly amplified the grappling rewards.
| Metric | Ariane da Silva | Luana Carolina |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 245 | 434 |
| Activity ELO | 1 036 | 997 |
| ELO Change | +27 | -22 |
Ariane da Silva demonstrated standard activity with 245 days since her last fight, earning a small activity bonus for reasonable scheduling. As the winner, Ariane da Silva capitalized on this activity level, while Luana Carolina's 434-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Ariane da Silva | Luana Carolina |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 2 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 015 | 998 |
| ELO Change | +28 | -23 |
Ariane da Silva extended her 2-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Luana Carolina is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Ariane da Silva | Luana Carolina |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Women's Flyweight | Women's Flyweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 006 | 996 |
| ELO Change | +23 | -23 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.

