June 30, 2023
Women's Flyweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Ariane da Silva | Melissa Gatto |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 10 | 4 |
| Experience Gap | 6 | -6 |
| Experience ELO | 1 065 | 1 042 |
| ELO Change | +36 | -36 |
Ariane da Silva's 6-fight experience advantage (10 vs 4 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Ariane da Silva for the expected result. Had Melissa Gatto pulled off the upset, her experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Ariane da Silva | Melissa Gatto |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 018 | 998 |
| ELO Change | +23 | -23 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Ariane da Silva | Melissa Gatto |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Split | Decision - Split |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 070 | 1 067 |
| ELO Change | +11 | -11 |
The controversial Decision - Split reflected a closely contested battle, with Ariane da Silva receiving reduced bonuses due to the lack of clear domination.
| Metric | Ariane da Silva | Melissa Gatto |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 66 | 85 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 149 | 186 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 81 | 100 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 993 | 1 086 |
| ELO Change | +30 | -30 |
Melissa Gatto controlled the striking through superior volume (100 vs 81 total strikes), significant strike advantage (85 vs 66). However, since Melissa Gatto lost the overall fight, her striking superiority couldn't be converted into ELO bonuses. Ariane da Silva's positive striking ELO reflects the overall victory rather than striking dominance.
| Metric | Ariane da Silva | Melissa Gatto |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 1 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 1 | 7 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:47 | 2:57 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 1 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 1 005 | 938 |
| ELO Change | +72 | -72 |
Ariane da Silva controlled Melissa Gatto on the ground with 1 vs 0 takedowns, 0:47 of control time, 1 ground strike, earning substantial ground ELO bonuses.
| Metric | Ariane da Silva | Melissa Gatto |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 112 | 420 |
| Activity ELO | 1 109 | 1 026 |
| ELO Change | +51 | -20 |
Ariane da Silva demonstrated solid activity levels with 112 days since her last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Ariane da Silva capitalized on this activity level, while Melissa Gatto's 420-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Ariane da Silva | Melissa Gatto |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 2 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 035 | 1 006 |
| ELO Change | +27 | -22 |
Ariane da Silva extended her 2-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Melissa Gatto is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Ariane da Silva | Melissa Gatto |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Women's Flyweight | Women's Flyweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 018 | 998 |
| ELO Change | +23 | -23 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.

