Ariane da Silva vs Melissa Gatto

June 30, 2023

Women's Flyweight Bout

Click any category to learn how it's calculated.

1039
(+34)
Ariane da Silva
Winner: Ariane da Silva
Decision - Split
Round 3 • 5:00

No Predictions Available

Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025

C-ELO Evolution

Ariane da Silva+34
Melissa Gatto-30
1020
(-30)
Melissa Gatto

C-ELO™ Evolution Comparison

Fight Stats & ELO Performance

Experience ELO
ELO Changes
Ariane da Silva: +36Melissa Gatto: -36

Performance Statistics

MetricAriane da SilvaMelissa Gatto
Total UFC Fights104
Experience Gap6-6
Experience ELO1 0651 042
ELO Change+36-36
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What Happened

Ariane da Silva's 6-fight experience advantage (10 vs 4 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Ariane da Silva for the expected result. Had Melissa Gatto pulled off the upset, her experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.

Title Fight ELO
ELO Changes
Ariane da Silva: +23Melissa Gatto: -23

Performance Statistics

MetricAriane da SilvaMelissa Gatto
Title Fight ?NoNo
Title Fight ELO1 018998
ELO Change+23-23
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What Happened

This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.

Win Type ELO
ELO Changes
Ariane da Silva: +11Melissa Gatto: -11

Performance Statistics

MetricAriane da SilvaMelissa Gatto
Fight OutcomeDecision - SplitDecision - Split
Last Round33
Time of Finish5:005:00
Win Type ELO1 0701 067
ELO Change+11-11
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What Happened

The controversial Decision - Split reflected a closely contested battle, with Ariane da Silva receiving reduced bonuses due to the lack of clear domination.

Striking ELO
ELO Changes
Ariane da Silva: +30Melissa Gatto: -30

Performance Statistics

MetricAriane da SilvaMelissa Gatto
Significant Strikes Landed6685
Significant Strikes Attempted149186
Total Strikes Landed81100
Knockdowns Scored00
Striking ELO9931 086
ELO Change+30-30
💡

What Happened

Melissa Gatto controlled the striking through superior volume (100 vs 81 total strikes), significant strike advantage (85 vs 66). However, since Melissa Gatto lost the overall fight, her striking superiority couldn't be converted into ELO bonuses. Ariane da Silva's positive striking ELO reflects the overall victory rather than striking dominance.

Ground ELO
ELO Changes
Ariane da Silva: +72Melissa Gatto: -72

Performance Statistics

MetricAriane da SilvaMelissa Gatto
Takedowns Landed10
Takedowns Attempted17
Ground Control Time0:472:57
Ground Strikes Landed10
Ground ELO1 005938
ELO Change+72-72
💡

What Happened

Ariane da Silva controlled Melissa Gatto on the ground with 1 vs 0 takedowns, 0:47 of control time, 1 ground strike, earning substantial ground ELO bonuses.

Activity ELO
ELO Changes
Ariane da Silva: +51Melissa Gatto: -20

Performance Statistics

MetricAriane da SilvaMelissa Gatto
Days Since Last Fight112420
Activity ELO1 1091 026
ELO Change+51-20
💡

What Happened

Ariane da Silva demonstrated solid activity levels with 112 days since her last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Ariane da Silva capitalized on this activity level, while Melissa Gatto's 420-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.

Win Streak ELO
ELO Changes
Ariane da Silva: +27Melissa Gatto: -22

Performance Statistics

MetricAriane da SilvaMelissa Gatto
Win Streak20
Win Streak ELO1 0351 006
ELO Change+27-22
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What Happened

Ariane da Silva extended her 2-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Melissa Gatto is back at 0 with this loss.

Basic/Category ELO
ELO Changes
Ariane da Silva: +23Melissa Gatto: -23

Performance Statistics

MetricAriane da SilvaMelissa Gatto
Weight ClassWomen's FlyweightWomen's Flyweight
Double Championship FightNoNo
Basic/Category ELO1 018998
ELO Change+23-23
💡

What Happened

This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.