December 16, 2022
Lightweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Arman Tsarukyan | Damir Ismagulov |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 8 | 6 |
| Experience Gap | 2 | -2 |
| Experience ELO | 1 192 | 1 099 |
| ELO Change | +28 | -28 |
Arman Tsarukyan's 2-fight experience advantage (8 vs 6 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Arman Tsarukyan for the expected result. Had Damir Ismagulov pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Arman Tsarukyan | Damir Ismagulov |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 093 | 1 072 |
| ELO Change | +23 | -23 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Arman Tsarukyan | Damir Ismagulov |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Unanimous | Decision - Unanimous |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 319 | 1 124 |
| ELO Change | +26 | -26 |
Arman Tsarukyan earned a clear Decision - Unanimous, receiving full decision bonuses for controlling the fight across all rounds. Of course, a finish would have yielded even greater rewards.
| Metric | Arman Tsarukyan | Damir Ismagulov |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 34 | 36 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 81 | 86 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 50 | 51 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 321 | 1 167 |
| ELO Change | +14 | -14 |
The striking was extremely close with minimal separation between fighters. However, since Damir Ismagulov lost the overall fight, any slight striking edge couldn't be converted into ELO gains. Arman Tsarukyan's positive striking ELO reflects the overall victory rather than striking dominance.
| Metric | Arman Tsarukyan | Damir Ismagulov |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 7 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 21 | 0 |
| Ground Control Time | 9:25 | 0:06 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 1 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 1 359 | 1 117 |
| ELO Change | +100 | -100 |
Arman Tsarukyan dominated Damir Ismagulov on the ground with 7 vs 0 takedowns, 9:25 of control time, 1 ground strike, earning massive ground ELO bonuses.
| Metric | Arman Tsarukyan | Damir Ismagulov |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 176 | 183 |
| Activity ELO | 1 182 | 1 110 |
| ELO Change | +35 | -20 |
Arman Tsarukyan demonstrated solid activity levels with 176 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Arman Tsarukyan capitalized on this activity level, while Damir Ismagulov's 183-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Arman Tsarukyan | Damir Ismagulov |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 1 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 136 | 1 104 |
| ELO Change | +24 | -22 |
Arman Tsarukyan started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Damir Ismagulov is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Arman Tsarukyan | Damir Ismagulov |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Lightweight | Lightweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 093 | 1 072 |
| ELO Change | +23 | -23 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.