April 19, 2019
Lightweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Arman Tsarukyan | Islam Makhachev |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 1 | 7 |
| Experience Gap | -6 | 6 |
| Experience ELO | 987 | 1 241 |
| ELO Change | -13 | +13 |
Islam Makhachev's 6-fight experience advantage (7 vs 1 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Islam Makhachev for the expected result. Had Arman Tsarukyan pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Arman Tsarukyan | Islam Makhachev |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 985 | 1 110 |
| ELO Change | -15 | +15 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Arman Tsarukyan | Islam Makhachev |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Unanimous | Decision - Unanimous |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 988 | 1 331 |
| ELO Change | -12 | +12 |
Islam Makhachev earned a clear Decision - Unanimous, receiving full decision bonuses for controlling the fight across all rounds. Of course, a finish would have yielded even greater rewards.
| Metric | Arman Tsarukyan | Islam Makhachev |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 13 | 14 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 43 | 20 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 60 | 47 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 991 | 1 237 |
| ELO Change | -9 | +9 |
Arman Tsarukyan controlled the striking through superior accuracy (30.2% vs 70.0%). However, since Arman Tsarukyan lost the overall fight, his striking superiority couldn't be converted into ELO bonuses. Islam Makhachev's positive striking ELO reflects the overall victory rather than striking dominance.
| Metric | Arman Tsarukyan | Islam Makhachev |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 1 | 4 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 12 | 9 |
| Ground Control Time | 1:47 | 6:06 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 2 |
| Ground ELO | 986 | 1 436 |
| ELO Change | -14 | +14 |
Islam Makhachev dominated Arman Tsarukyan on the ground with 4 vs 1 takedowns, 6:06 of control time, 2 ground strikes, earning massive ground ELO bonuses.
| Metric | Arman Tsarukyan | Islam Makhachev |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | N/A | 266 |
| Activity ELO | 988 | 1 167 |
| ELO Change | -12 | +16 |
Islam Makhachev demonstrated standard activity with 266 days since his last fight, earning a small activity bonus for reasonable scheduling. As the winner, Islam Makhachev capitalized on this activity level, while Arman Tsarukyan's null-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Arman Tsarukyan | Islam Makhachev |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 5 |
| Win Streak ELO | 986 | 1 151 |
| ELO Change | -14 | +26 |
Islam Makhachev continued building serious momentum with a 5-fight win streak, earning a strong bonus as streak bonuses escalate. Arman Tsarukyan's now at 0.
| Metric | Arman Tsarukyan | Islam Makhachev |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Lightweight | Lightweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 985 | 1 110 |
| ELO Change | -15 | +15 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.

