June 16, 2023
Middleweight Bout
Click any category to learn how it's calculated.
Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Armen Petrosyan | Christian Leroy Duncan |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 4 | 2 |
| Experience Gap | 2 | -2 |
| Experience ELO | 1 117 | 1 044 |
| ELO Change | +31 | -31 |
Armen Petrosyan's 2-fight experience advantage (4 vs 2 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Armen Petrosyan for the expected result. Had Christian Leroy Duncan pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Armen Petrosyan | Christian Leroy Duncan |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 044 | 1 000 |
| ELO Change | +21 | -21 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Armen Petrosyan | Christian Leroy Duncan |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Unanimous | Decision - Unanimous |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 071 | 1 075 |
| ELO Change | +56 | -56 |
Armen Petrosyan earned a clear Decision - Unanimous, receiving full decision bonuses for controlling the fight across all rounds. Of course, a finish would have yielded even greater rewards.
| Metric | Armen Petrosyan | Christian Leroy Duncan |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 89 | 59 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 156 | 122 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 111 | 73 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 095 | 1 049 |
| ELO Change | +34 | -34 |
Armen Petrosyan controlled the striking exchanges with 111 vs 73 total strikes, 89 vs 59 significant strikes, 57.1% vs 48.4% accuracy. Armen Petrosyan capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Armen Petrosyan | Christian Leroy Duncan |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 1 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 2 | 3 |
| Ground Control Time | 3:21 | 1:09 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 2 | 1 |
| Ground ELO | 1 034 | 977 |
| ELO Change | +45 | -45 |
Armen Petrosyan edged out Christian Leroy Duncan on the ground with 1 vs 0 takedowns, 3:21 of control time, 2 ground strikes, earning solid ground ELO bonuses.
| Metric | Armen Petrosyan | Christian Leroy Duncan |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 238 | 91 |
| Activity ELO | 1 077 | 1 004 |
| ELO Change | +24 | -19 |
Armen Petrosyan demonstrated standard activity with 238 days since his last fight, earning a small activity bonus for reasonable scheduling. As the winner, Armen Petrosyan capitalized on this activity level, while Christian Leroy Duncan's 91-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Armen Petrosyan | Christian Leroy Duncan |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 2 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 051 | 1 002 |
| ELO Change | +25 | -21 |
Armen Petrosyan extended his 2-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Christian Leroy Duncan is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Armen Petrosyan | Christian Leroy Duncan |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Middleweight | Middleweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 044 | 1 000 |
| ELO Change | +21 | -21 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.