February 9, 2024
Middleweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Armen Petrosyan | Rodolfo Vieira |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 5 | 7 |
| Experience Gap | -2 | 2 |
| Experience ELO | 1 083 | 1 121 |
| ELO Change | -34 | +34 |
Rodolfo Vieira's 2-fight experience advantage (7 vs 5 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Rodolfo Vieira for the expected result. Had Armen Petrosyan pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Armen Petrosyan | Rodolfo Vieira |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 022 | 1 057 |
| ELO Change | -22 | +22 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Armen Petrosyan | Rodolfo Vieira |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Submission | Submission |
| Last Round | 1 | 1 |
| Time of Finish | 4:48 | 4:48 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 039 | 1 210 |
| ELO Change | -32 | +52 |
Rodolfo Vieira earned an early finish with a Submission in round 1 at 4:48, gaining additional bonuses for the first-round submission.
| Metric | Armen Petrosyan | Rodolfo Vieira |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 9 | 6 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 20 | 11 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 14 | 14 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 068 | 1 028 |
| ELO Change | -27 | +27 |
The striking was extremely close with minimal separation between fighters. However, since Armen Petrosyan lost the overall fight, any slight striking edge couldn't be converted into ELO gains. Rodolfo Vieira's positive striking ELO reflects the overall victory rather than striking dominance.
| Metric | Armen Petrosyan | Rodolfo Vieira |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 3 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 0 | 3 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:00 | 2:46 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 982 | 1 244 |
| ELO Change | -52 | +52 |
Rodolfo Vieira dominated Armen Petrosyan on the ground with 3 vs 0 takedowns, 2:46 of control time, earning massive ground ELO bonuses. The submission finish significantly amplified the grappling rewards.
| Metric | Armen Petrosyan | Rodolfo Vieira |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 239 | 288 |
| Activity ELO | 1 055 | 1 087 |
| ELO Change | -22 | +22 |
Rodolfo Vieira demonstrated standard activity with 288 days since his last fight, earning no activity bonus. As the winner, Rodolfo Vieira capitalized on this activity level, while Armen Petrosyan's 239-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Armen Petrosyan | Rodolfo Vieira |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 2 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 030 | 1 071 |
| ELO Change | -21 | +26 |
Rodolfo Vieira extended his 2-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Armen Petrosyan is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Armen Petrosyan | Rodolfo Vieira |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Middleweight | Middleweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 022 | 1 057 |
| ELO Change | -22 | +22 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.